SEVERE WX : Severe Thunderstorm Warning View Alerts

January 22, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Lots of wind-driven rain on snow-covered, frozen ground, then much colder again with some snow.

Posted: Jan 22, 2019 9:23 PM
Updated: Jan 22, 2019 10:31 PM

Here is the latest forecast based on the best data & guidance.

NOW TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT................

FIRST, THE RAIN:

A lot of rain is ahead for tonight.  Heaviest will be overnight to early tomorrow morning.  However, overall rainfall may continue right through the morning to midday.  At that point a rapid transition to some local flurries & snow showers will occur.

Rapid freezing conditions will occur with near flash-freeze scenario setting up as we drop from 40s to 20s within two hours.

0.80"-1.50" of rainfall is likely.

I cannot even rule out an isolated rumble of thunder overnight with the heaviest rainfall.

Watch for lots of ponding on roadways & streets as some drains will be clogged with snow & ice.  The rain will fall on frozen ground & although the snow will absorb some like a snow cone, the warmer rain will be melting alot of it away.  It all spells substantial rises in creeks & streams tonight-tomorrow morning.  As ice jams up, local rapid fluctuations on water levels may occur.

Flood Warnings are up on the Wabash from near Delphi, all the way to Covington for some minor flooding ahead from rainfall & melting snow.  With much colder air coming in it will freeze up again, preventing greater flooding potential.

Precipitation types:

Simulated radar reflectivity:

Projected totals by tomorrow afternoon:

THE WIND:

Winds are screaming at +55 mph at 2500'...............

They are +60-70 mph at 5000'..............

So far, the peak gusts in the viewing area have been as high as 36 mph.  Such +30 mph gusts have been pretty random & pretty localized as the stronger gradient gusts have had trouble mixing down in the lowest 1 km of the troposphere due to cool inversion, just below this very warm air advecting into the area at about 2000-6000' up.

Overnight, the heavier rainfall may tap into some of this wind energy & mix it to the surface.  It will not be widespread, but a few erratic, random 35-45 mph gusts are possible in otherwise 20-25 mph gusts.

The highest, most-widespread gusts should be tomorrow morning to early afternoon.  Gusts of 35-45 mph are likely.  Some gusts will exceed 45 mph.  Sustained winds of 15-25 mph are likely.  A couple isolated power outages are possible.

Southerly winds tonight will go southwest, then west to west-northwest tomorrow.

Projected gusts (in knots):

THE SNOW:

The cold will arrive tomorrow after the deep moisture exits.  If the cold air would catch up to it, like first thought, we would have a quick inch or two of snow.

That does not look to be the case.

However, some flurries & snow showers are possible at times tomorrow afternoon-evening & into tomorrow night.  A dusting to thin coating could occur in places. 

TEMPERATURE:

Temperatures should reach 39-45 & remain there later tonight, through tomorrow morning.  Cold front will slice through midday to afternoon through the area.

As this front passes, temperatures will quickly drop.  They could drop from 39-45 to 20-25 in two hours.  This will result in rapid freezing of water.  Some areas may slicken up some as near flash freezing conditions occur.

Lows tomorrow night will run 11-16.  Given the mentioned dusting to thin coating of snow possible in some places, some localized areas of slick roads are possible.

Wind chills may drop to around 0 by Thursday morning.

LOOKING OUT TO EARLY NEXT WEEK & THE MULTIPLE ALBERTA CLIPPERS AHEAD...................

CLIPPER SYSTEMS ARE FAST MOVING & TIMING IS OFTEN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO SYSTEM, SO CHANGES TO TIMING ARE POSSIBLE.

Thursday Clipper #1:

Weak clipper Thursday may bring some light snow.  Accumulations look very minor at a dusting/coating possible at 0.5" or less.  After highs in the 20s near midday, they may fall in the afternoon into the teens.

Friday Bitter to Dangerous Cold:

Bitterly cold weather Friday may lead to morning wind chills as low as -25.  Afternoon wind chills may run near -12.

Saturday Clipper #2:

Clipper Saturday may bring wave of snow.  Highs in the teens to 20s are likely.  Minor accumulation is possible of 1" or less the way it looks right now, but...................(see below)...........

Sunday Clipper #3:

It is difficult to tell whether Saturday or Sunday will be the MAIN clipper with the band of best frontagenetical forcing for snow production.  One of the systems will have a band of enchanced snowfall of several inches in or near the area.

Monday Clipper #4:

Snow is possible Monday with potential of accumulation with highs in the 20s to lower 30s.  Some icy mix may occur as well.  Arctic air will follow Tuesday.

The clipper train:

West Lafayette
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Hi: 88° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 79°
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Scattered Clouds
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Hi: 82° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 79°
Logansport
Clear
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Hi: 83° Lo: 63°
Feels Like: 72°
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