January 21, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Rain & snow ahead with two substantial systems this week & next week.

Posted: Jan 21, 2020 4:17 PM
Updated: Jan 21, 2020 5:49 PM

Latest data trending to nearly all wet snow Thursday evening-night as we wet-bulb (evaporatively cool) from 37-41 to 31-33 as precipitation falls & reaches the ground.

There are also some new suggestions that the snow comes in much sooner.....more like Thursday morning or midday, rather than evening to night.

We will monitor.

It appears that weakening trend will tend to take shape with low in Iowa to Illinois & new surface low will take shape in northern Arkansas to southeast Missouri.

This will occur as 90- to 100-knot upper jet streak races through the Tennessee & Ohio Valleys, resulting in rapid rising motion & subsequent quick surface pressure drops south of the first low.

This should make the Arkansas to southern Indiana low the dominant one.

If this new low can track far enough to the south, then we will end up with all wet snow.

However, there is disagreement among model solutions on that scenario, as exact track varies.

So, I'd like to go with a snow to rain to snow wording for late Thursday to Saturday morning.

Then, a few scattered snow showers will be possible Saturday & a few isolated snow showers on Sunday.

All data paints at least some minor accumulation snow here in a couple of rounds, but they differ on amounts.

There is a clear trend to keep the heaviest snowfall over Iowa, Illinois & parts of Missouri.

Regardless, it should be a wet, gloppy, slushy snowfall & then should melt with highs 34-37 Sunday & 35-40 Monday.

Highs Tuesday should run 36-41 with clouds dominating the forecast.

Potential is there for a system of rain to snow late next week, then potential of snowfall February 2 & 4.

Highs in the 30s to 20s & 30s should dominate.

February temperature anomalies are colder than normal here & quite warm in the western U.S. & Canada.

Our cold will tend to ride due south out of Hudson Bay.

This outlook is different from what looked to happen as analogs show warm in the Southeast & Far West & very cold in the Plains & Midwest.

"Polar Vortex" cold?  Pattern is good for it overall from a sea surface temperature perspective, but it has remained pretty tight since Christmas, except for just recently.  However, this slight weakening is brief.

So we will see.

In this data, the cold is the most-pronounced New England to the Southeast with negative anomalies back to our area.

So, it looks overall colder than normal, but also drier than normal in February 2020.

However, overall snowfall looks above normal in our area (normal is 4-7" for the area with 3-5 days of 0.1" of snow or more per 30-year normals):

At this point, there is still a trend for a cooler-& wetter-than-normal March overall.

Wet, colder pattern would support potential of later-season March snowstorm.

There is a tendency for above normal temperatures in the Southeast & Plains & normal temperatures here (overall) for the month of April.  It will likely end up below normal in the Northern Plains, northern Great Lakes, southeastern Canada & northern New England.

April looks wetter than normal.

The Euro agrees with U.S. models.

It shows higher probability of wetter-than-normal March-April-May period.

Above normal spring precipitation is projected in the Euro from Oklahoma to Missouri, Iowa, eastward through Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio & Kentucky.

Higher probability of below normal precipitation is over the Northern Plains.

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Dry, hot & humid with thickening smoke, then Thursday storms...
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