January 21, 11:45 PM Update

Substantial storm system ahead late week.

Posted: Jan 21, 2020 11:16 AM
Updated: Jan 21, 2020 11:44 AM

Trend is for snow Thursday evening-night as we have the help of evaporative cooling to lows near 31.

Then, change-over to rain/snow or rain is possible part of Friday with highs near 36.

However, it appears that an energy transfer from the surface low over Iowa to developing low in Arkansas to southeastern Missouri may occur.

This will shift wind to the east & northeast & turn rain back to snow as temperatures drop to 32.

Snow will decrease & taper late Friday night to Saturday with highs near 34.

Snowfall accumulation by Thursday 8 p.m.

Note how the model brings 1" amounts along & west of U.S. 41 by that time.

There may already be some 6-8" amounts in Iowa.

By 1 a.m. Thursday night, data shows 1-2" possible in our west & northwest & less elsewhere.  Heaviest snow is over Missouri & Iowa.

Hi-Res Euro model shows total snowfall of 0.3" in far southeast to 1-2" for much of the area, but up to 4" along the Kankakee River with a narrow corridor of heavier snowfall in northern Newton, Jasper & far northwestern Pulaski counties.

U.S. GFS model has 1-2" for much of the area as well with up to 4" along the Kankakee River & 1" or less in the southeast.

Part could occur initially, then melt, then the rest in the 4th quarter of the system & it would be a wet, gloppy, slushy snow at that.

Widespread heavy snowfall is projected from Illinois to Kansas as secondary low developing in Arkansas & southeast Missouri dumps quite a bit of heavy snowfall.

For us, first snow, then rain, then snow will cut down on total snowfall amounts overall, it appears.

If the first low can produce all snow & then the secondary low southwest of us track far enough south to bring the heavy snow bands here, then we will see much, much more in the way of accumulation.

We will see.  There are still many questions, but there is definitely still a trend of heavier snowfall west of our area.  There is even a question as to amounts even west of us too!

A few snow showers are possible right through Saturday with even the potential of a few Sunday with highs int he 30s.  Any accumulation would be light.

Next system to monitor is late next week with rain to snow possible.  Highs in the 30s look to dominate.

Snow is possible around February 2 & 4 with highs in the 20s & 30s.

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