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January 20, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on substantial late week system.

Posted: Jan 20, 2020 8:58 PM
Updated: Jan 21, 2020 12:57 AM

With some snow showers & flurries today, highs reached 24-28 after lows of 7-16.

However, there was a lack of wind today, unlike what we have experienced recently.

Shortwave (cold pocket aloft) interracting with lake effect flurries/snow showers is producing an area of snow showers that is drifting south-southwestward in the area.

0.5" or less of dry, fluffy snow is expected for the most part, however a narrow localized band or two may produce fluffy 1" amounts.  Those amounts would tend to occur in our far northern areas.

Snow showers should taper Tuesday morning to flurries, then completely end by late morning.

Tuesday-Wednesday look quiet.

We should become partly cloudy with time tomorrow with a light wind & highs of 29-34.

After 17-21 tomorrow night, highs Wednesday should reach 34-39 as clouds increase.

However, winds will increase to 15-25 mph from the south Wednesday.  With that wind & cloud cover, temperatures will only drop to around 32 Wednesday night.

With a cloudy sky, highs should reach 38-42 Thursday.  South winds at 10-20 mph should give way to southeast, then east to east-northeast winds evening-overnight.

Exact track of the Thursday evening-night through Friday to Friday night system is in question.  This will determine dominant precipitation type here, whether it is mostly rain, mostly snow for various parts of the area.  There is still a trend to bring some amount of snow to the area & there is good agreement that a band of heavy snowfall will set up with the system somewhere.

1.  Canadian model has more rain than snow, but trace to 2" from east to northwest at the end of the system.  It also shows 9-13" of snowfall from Missouri & far southeastern Iowa to northern Illinois.

The GEM (Canadian Model):

2.  The Euro is mostly rain, ending as snow with trace to 2" here from southeast to northwest, while 6-10" is forecast over Iowa & Missouri & even a band of 6-8" over west-central Illinois.

The Euro:

3.  German model shows rain/snow/sleet mix to rain, ending as snow with minor accumulation of 0.3" southeast to 2" in our northwest with band of 4-5" in Illinois & a band of 5-6" in Iowa.

4. Analog agrees on heaviest snow Missouri to Illinois, but vary on how much snow here.  The difference between the top analog & the second best is 0.5-3" & 5-10" over the area.

December 9-11, 1997 is the top analog for the system.  Here are the snowfall accumulation amounts:

Second best:  December 24-26, 2002 storm.....

Another higher good analog February 26-28, 2013:

GEFS Ensembles suggest a band of heavy snow overMissouri & Illinois with lesser amounts here (but still accumulation):

A few snow flurries/snow showers are possible Saturday night-Sunday with lots of clouds & highs in the lower to middle 30s.

Next Monday-Tuesday looks rather gray with highs in the 30s & lows near 30, but tranquil.

Wednesday looks partly cloudy with highs in the 30s.

Looks like two rain to snow systems Thursday through Saturday of next week.  Accumulation is possible with highs in the 30s & lows in 20s & 30s.

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