Let's focus on the weather systems that will impact our area now to February 20.
Sunday-Monday is moisture-rich.
Some severe weather is possible in the southern U.S.
CIPS analog data shows the heavy rainfall south of our area & substantial precipitation here.
The December 12-13, 2016 system is a good analog match-up right now. Note the ice that occurred with that system.
Note the snow that occurred with that system:
Thoughts are that snow & sleet to freezing rain will occur later Sunday-Sunday night & then the change-over to rain will occur south to north over the area Monday. It appears that it may end as ice to snow.
Minor accumulation of snow & ice may occur at the onset & the at the end of the Sunday-Monday system.
The Wednesday night-Thursday system shows heavy rainfall across the South & precipitation into our area.
Severe weather is likely in the Deep South.
This is the CIPS analog analysis:
Note the snow probabilities popping up in a band from northern Kansas & Missouri to our area with that system
Canadian model show one cold night around January 28-29 with that mantle of snow laid down. Could be coldest of the winter or tie for coldest of the winter with mid-February cold with lows near 0. This, if the clear sky with calm winds & snow mantle is realized.
CIPS analog shows the bulk of the much colder air with the biggest temperature anomalies just east & south of the area with single digits in Virginia to North Carolina. However, it still looks like briefly very cold here.
CIPS analog shows probability of +60 by February 2. You can see the warmth moving rapidly north & northeast!
Note the CIPS analog temperature anomalies around February 2 quickly moving in.
Much, much warmer weather should overspread the area with time in the February 3-10 period.
Temperatures may surge way above normal to near/record warmth day & night for a time with taste of spring.
This period looks wetter with a couple round of heavier rainfall & t'storms possible.
Some severe risk could get as far north as our region.
Severe risk will occur in a couple to multiple occasions in the southern U.S.
Note the big spring-like storm system projected around February 4-5.
Surge of cold with potential of icing & even a snow event is still trending in mid-February before we warm back up in late February with taste of spring.