Let's focus on the weather systems that will impact our area now to February 20.

Sunday-Monday is moisture-rich.

Some severe weather is possible in the southern U.S.

CIPS analog data shows the heavy rainfall south of our area & substantial precipitation here.

The December 12-13, 2016 system is a good analog match-up right now.  Note the ice that occurred with that system.

Note the snow that occurred with that system:

Thoughts are that snow & sleet to freezing rain will occur later Sunday-Sunday night & then the change-over to rain will occur south to north over the area Monday.  It appears that it may end as ice to snow.

Minor accumulation of snow & ice may occur at the onset & the at the end of the Sunday-Monday system.

The Wednesday night-Thursday system shows heavy rainfall across the South & precipitation into our area.

Severe weather is likely in the Deep South.

This is the CIPS analog analysis:

Note the snow probabilities popping up in a band from northern Kansas & Missouri to our area with that system

Canadian model show one cold night around January 28-29 with that mantle of snow laid down.  Could be coldest of the winter or tie for coldest of the winter with mid-February cold with lows near 0.  This, if the clear sky with calm winds & snow mantle is realized.

CIPS analog shows the bulk of the much colder air with the biggest temperature anomalies just east & south of the area with single digits in Virginia to North Carolina.  However, it still looks like briefly very cold here.

CIPS analog shows probability of +60 by February 2.  You can see the warmth moving rapidly north & northeast!

Note the CIPS analog temperature anomalies around February 2 quickly moving in.

Much, much warmer weather should overspread the area with time in the February 3-10 period.

Temperatures may surge way above normal to near/record warmth day & night for a time with taste of spring.

This period looks wetter with a couple round of heavier rainfall & t'storms possible.

Some severe risk could get as far north as our region.

Severe risk will occur in a couple to multiple occasions in the southern U.S.

Note the big spring-like storm system projected around February 4-5.

Surge of cold with potential of icing & even a snow event is still trending in mid-February before we warm back up in late February with taste of spring.