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January 19, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest short-, medium- & long-range outlook....

Posted: Jan 19, 2021 7:29 PM
Updated: Jan 19, 2021 11:58 PM

Highs today ran 30-41.

This has been a mild winter.  Temperatures have been above normal overall since November & the last 30 days is no exception.

Snowfall is running below normal for the Fall & Winter so far & the past 30 days are no different.

Over the past 30 days, snowfall has been running just half of normal.

Overall precipitation is running 75-80% of normal over the past 30 days.  I expected wetter weather in the late December to January period, but so far it is not above normal.

We look to go above normal with time, especially in February.

Moderate Drought remains in our northwestern counties.

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Snow showers will pass then taper to flurries tonight.

Best chance of near 1" would be in our far northeast.  Less than 1" will occur elsewhere & much of that will be trace to 0.4".

Nonetheless, watch for some slick spots as temperatures fall below freezing.

A period of wind gusts of 35-45 are possible behind the front from the west-northwest with sustained winds at 15-25 mph.

Lows will drop to 20-25 with wind chills to 8-16 by morning with west-northwest winds at 10-23 mph at that time.

Wednesday will become windy (south-southwest 20-30 mph late) & mostly sunny with highs 33-38, then rise to 35-41 by 11 p.m. tomorrow night.  Tomorrow night looks breezy to windy with south-southwest wind gusts 25-35 mph.

Lows will run 32-38 tomorrow night.

After 38-46 Thursday midday-early afternoon, temperatures should fall to 34-41 late.

Southwest winds will become west to northwest 20-35 mph then decreasing to 15-24 mph.

Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with perhaps an isolated brief shower or sprinkle along the cold front.

Friday looks breezy to windy from the northwest at 15-30 mph & lots of clouds.  A few spits of flurries are possible with highs 28-34.

Saturday is trending with sunshine, then increasing clouds with highs 30-35 with only a light wind.

Snow is possible Sunday PM, followed by change-over to icy mix, then rain.  However, the rain may end as icy mix then snow Monday.

After highs of 30-33 Sunday, temperatures should reach 36-43 early Monday, then drop to 31-33 later in the day & 21-26 Monday night.

Minor accumulation of snow & ice at the beginning & end of the system is possible with rainfall in the middle.

So, any travel issues would be Sunday PM-Sunday night & later Monday-Monday night.

Stay tuned for tweaks to the forecast.

A snow system could impact us Tuesday-Wednesday with some minor accumulation, followed by a brief, potent cold shot.

With a mantle of snow laid down & a surface high moving over the area on a clear night, lows near 0 are still possible.

-NAO, AO, the Stratospheric Warming, -EPO promote cold shots end of January & then in mid-February

The quick switch to +EPO promotes briefness of the cold in late January, making it harder for the cold to establish. 

-EPO has the potential to make the mid-February cold colder than this late January cold & for longer duration (leading to longer potential of icing, as well as snow).

Much warmer weather should arrive in early February with taste of spring as multiple rounds of rainfall & t'storms pass.

A couple days of near/record warmth cannot be ruled out.

Warmer than normal February 2-11:

Wetter than normal February 2-11:

MJO will be a big factor in this big warm-up going to solid Phase 6 to 7 for early February for about 8 days.

Phase 6 & 7 tend to promote warmth & wetness in our region this time of year:

Temperature anomalies with such a solid MJO influence:

Precipitation anomalies with such a solid MJO influence:

Much colder weather is ahead in mid-February with risk of ice & snow. This may be a bit colder than that of late January winter & of certainly longer duration, it appears.

Round of normal temperatures mid-February:

Precipitation is above normal mid-February signaling the icing & even some snow risk:

Much warmer weather should occur in late February.

Spring overall is warmer than normal.

Spring is also wetter than normal.

Summer looks hotter than normal.

Summer also looks drier than normal with continued likelihood of drought.

Upper ridging will tend to dominate with first 100s since 2012 possible. 

Storm mode will tend to be pulsey, random multi-cells with hit or miss rainfall.  There is greater potential of a derecho.

The saving grace would be the tropics.

The tropical system looks very active with above normal hurricane season expected, which could get going by June.  If we see a situation like 2005 where the tropics where the difference between significant drought & a good rainfall, we will be ok.

The tropics will be more important than ever this summer.  It could literally mean the difference between normal crop yields & dismal yields.

Drought probability is very high, but tropics will be extremely important!  One downside is the continued trend of much of the tropical activity & thus deep tropical moisture occurring southeast & east of our area.

Note the above normal rainfall from Florida & the eastern Gulf Coast this summer, especially late summer.  This will largely be tied to the tropics.  However, it will also be the result of "Ring of Fire" MCSs & "Ridge Riders" in Ontario, Quebec & into New England.

September-October looks warmer & drier than normal.

The potential is there for a double dip La Nina that could be with us to Spring 2022.  We will monitor.

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More quiet weather with cooler, drier air
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