January 19, 1 AM Long Ranger Outlook

Here is the low-down on the outlook & trends for the rest of the winter, through Spring, Summer & Fall 2021.

Posted: Jan 18, 2021 10:10 PM
Updated: Jan 19, 2021 12:10 AM

Trend is for brief cold snap (possibly coldest of winter for a night or two) late January with mantle of snow, then big warm-up in early February with much wetter conditions.

In fact, February is trending quite wet.  It is interesting to note, however, that December & January were trending very wet & they have not been overly wet per sey.

We will be in a gradient zone between below normal temperatures in the Plains & above normal temperatures here to the southeast U.S. in February.

Overall, here......early February looks mild a solid stretch in mid-February looks quite cold (perhaps equal to coldest of the winter on a couple of nights), followed by a warmer end to February.

You can see this colder stretch in mid-February lasting a good 8 days with risk of ice event/storm & even a snow event.

Overall, however, I still trended for below normal snowfall in February, but higher potential of ice.

Note the above normal precipitation with the colder air with much warmer, drier air to our southeast & heavy snowfall & cold northwest of the area.  This is a good set-up for icing.

Spring continues to be warmer than normal here & pretty early.  Colder, snowier weather will be over the Northwest, Northern Rockies & western Great Lakes.

The first signs of summer heat & drought will emerge with hotter & drier weather over the Southern Plains, Southwest & southern U.S.

March & April to early May look wet, but latter May looks quite dry at the moment.

March & April feature greater potential of severe weather than the past several years.

Wetter than normal spring overall:

Looks like a drier than normal summer with potential drought here:

Summer looks hotter than normal here with persistent upper ridging & storms tending to be pulsey type, though a derecho is certainly possible in this pattern.

September & October look drier than normal.

Very active hurricane season will result in much-above normal rainfall along the Eastern Gulf Coast, Florida & potentiall along the East Coast from Georgia to Delaware & then over eastern Massachusetts to Maine.

Otherwise, drought will be widespread from the Plains & Midwest to the Southeast unless multiple significant hurricanes can track farther West.  Monsoon season looks below normal contributing to the below normal rainfall in the Southwest & Rockies to Plains.

Fall looks warmer than normal.

Double La Nina is looking possible for Fall-Winter 2021-22, however strenght is unclear. 

In El Nino years when the Pacific is extremely active for typhoons & hurricanes, you tend to get big hurricanes causing massive storms over Siberia to Alaska in the Fall, helping to bump unusual cold shots south in early Fall.  This results often in cold, wet early Falls then milder late Falls.

That does not look to be the case this Fall so far.

Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Lafayette
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Danville
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Frankfort
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Mild Conditions Continue Wednesday
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CountyCasesDeaths
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Morgan6040124
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Steuben335955
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Clay238944
Randolph225076
Spencer215830
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Washington207727
Sullivan202038
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Owen181652
Jay177328
Fulton176437
Carroll175618
Perry172435
Orange170450
Rush163922
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Vermillion158040
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Ohio52711
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