January 17, 9:30 PM Winter Storm Update: Latest Analysis

Here is the latest guidance regarding conditions Saturday to Sunday.

Posted: Jan 17, 2019 9:19 PM
Updated: Jan 17, 2019 10:41 PM

Wind is breaking this widespread dense fog up now.  There may be some patchy fog that linger in some places to tomorrow morning, but it will not be as widespread as a bit earlier.  With temperatures falling into the mid to upper 20s & some patchy light freezing drizzle & fine, grainy flurries around & wet pavement, watch for a few slick spots tonight & tomorrow morning.


Take the top 15 analogs or storms that are most similar to Saturday's, as well as the most-similar model set-ups & blend them.  This is what you get for this winter storm for snowfall totals.  No computers, just an average of the analogs.  6-8" still seems reasonable with +12" northwest of the area & big-time +18" totals in the Northeast. 

This is courtesy of St. Louis University CIPS.

72-hour snowfall January 17, 7 a.m. to January 18, 7 p.m.:

72-hour snowfall January 18, 7 a.m. to January 19, 7 p.m.

The storm last weekend dropped 5-8" over much of the area with lesser amounts of 4-5" in the far north & a few isolated +8" amounts in a couple of bands over the area.

This storm should bring 6-8".  Not much of a difference in accumulations.  So, what's the difference?

Gusts with last storm reached 22-28 mph.

Gusts with this one will run 35-40 mph with a couple isolated 40-45 mph gusts possible with a big decrease in the temperature Saturday evening-night.

1.  Light snow could move in Friday night near 11 p.m. to midnight into Newton, Jasper, Benton, White & Pulaski counties.  However, it will really begin to increase & overspread the rest of the viewing area after 2 a.m.

2.  Snow, heavy at times, will be with us through morning & afternoon before tapering in the early evening.  So, it is speeding up a bit.

3.  Heaviest snow appears to be centering on morning to early afternoon with rates of 0.5-1" per hour.

4.  East to northeast winds will gust 35-40 mph with a few isolated gusts of 40-45 mph.  It will be windy late Friday night & all of Saturday, but the strongest gusts look to occur late afternoon to early evening.

5.  6-8" of snow is likely with widespread, significant blowing & drifting snow.  After 25-27 Saturday morning, highs will reach 28-32 before falling to 21-25 in the late afternoon-early evening.

6.  Some sleet & freezing rain could mix in along & south of I-74 for a bit.  If it lasts too long, it could cut snowfall totals there just a bit.

7.  Interestingly, as our snow tapers, a secondary wave of heavy snow may develop on the backside of the strong storm.  This could bring heavy snow to parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi & then right up through Kentucky & southern Indiana.

8.  Why is this important to us?  IF, this would happen to track a bit more to the northwest, then organized, accumulating snowfall in a second round could return Saturday night.  That currently DOES NOT look to happen, but does bear watching.  It would cause our totals to be increased.

9.  Otherwise, blowing & drifting snow will continue through Saturday night & into Sunday morning with northeast to north wind gusts to 30 mph.  Some lake effect flurries & snow showers are possible over parts of the area Saturday night to Sunday with some sun appearing at times Sunday.  0.5-1" of fluff or dryer lint-type snow is possible in some places.

10.  It will be COLD Saturday night & Sunday with wind chills Sunday morning to -13.

Wind gusts:

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