January 16, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest update on minor system tonight, the winter storm Saturday & a peek to Tuesday-Wednesday storm system.

Posted: Jan 16, 2019 9:35 PM
Updated: Jan 16, 2019 10:22 PM


We had some nice melting today after an icy morning with highs 31-38. 


Drizzle/Freezing Drizzle Increasing, Then Light Snow...........

A few patches of very light drizzle & freezing drizzle are over the area with low overcast.  It is not as widespread or as "heavy" as lastnight, however.

Temperatures are running 31-34 as of 9:15 p.m.

This drizzle & freezing drizzle should increase in the coming few hours & go to some light freezing rain before changing to snow.

Snow  (0.8-1.5") Changing to Cold Rain & Drizzle.............

Snow will last to tomorrow morning before ending as rain & drizzle.

The changeover to rain will move from southwest to northeast over the viewing area 7 a.m. to 1 p.m.  In the heart of the area, like around Tippecanoe County, it should occur in the 9 a.m. to noon time frame from the far southwest part of the county to the far northeast part of the county.

After slick roads in the morning, conditions should greatly improve with time late morning & into the afternoon with temperatures rising from 28-32 to 34-37.

Total snowfall accumulation (with thin coating of ice) will tend to run 0.8-1.5".  So I average it out to "around 1" of snow".

Dense Fog Issues..............

I think dense fog will be an issue tomorrow afternoon-evening.  It should begin to develop around 2 or 3 p.m. in the northwest & then expand to cover the entire area by 6 p.m.  Widespread visibilities of less than 0.5 mile are possible.  With this, cold patchy drizzle will be around.

Some Black Ice Issues..............

After 6:30 p.m., as temperatures drop, there is the potential of some light icing developing from freezing fog & patchy light freezing drizzle.  This could last in the area to as late as 10 p.m.

After 10 p.m., northwest winds & drier air look to come in & whisk much of the dense fog away.

Freezing drizzle should end & we will be left with just some snow flurries.  However, watch for some slick spots Friday morning.


Few Flurries...........Increasing Wind Late Friday Night.........

After a few snow flurries early, the day looks mostly cloudy to cloudy after lows in the mid 20s & highs near 32.

20s & increasing wind will develop with time late Friday night with gusts to 26 mph late. 


Snow & Wind with 6-8" Possible by Saturday Night............Some Sleet On Table For South

Snow should overspread much of the area early Saturday morning before 8 a.m.  It will last all day & be heavy at times.  It should gradually taper after 8 p.m.

Winds gusts of 35-40 mph are likely with a few isolated 40-45 mph gusts possible.  Strongest winds look to be in the afternoon to early evening.  Since winds will be northeast, then north, all roads will be impacted; east-west, north-south, northwest-southeast, southwest-northeast. 

Significant blowing & drifting snow is likely with significant reductions in visibility.  Travel will be greatly hampered.  It could be near impossible in parts of the area.

A total of 6-8" of snow is possible by Saturday night.  The potential is still there for some sleet to mix in with the snow in parts of Fountain & Montgomery counties.  If too much sleet falls there, it will impact snowfall totals some.

Continued Blowing & Drifting Snow Part of Sunday..............Wind Chills Dropping to -12...........

Even with the snow tapering to just some mainly lake effect flurries & snow showers Saturday overnight through Sunday (additional fluffy dusting to coating possible), gusts of 30-32 mph Sunday morning will continue to keep the blowing & drifting going.  Winds will diminish pretty rapidly in the afternoon.  Some sun will even appear in places, but it will be COLD.  We could tank to 7-14 by Sunday morning & only reach 14-18 Sunday afternoon.

With temperatures 7-14 & winds 20-30 mph, wind chills could drop to -12 Sunday morning. 


Below Zero Air Temperatures & Increasing Clouds As Next Winter Weather System Approaches.......

Monday looks bitterly cold in the morning with some patchy freezing fog & heavy frost & lows -7 to 2.

The day will feature increasing clouds with highs 15-21.

Temperatures may drop to 10-17 Monday night, only to rise to 18-26 by Tuesday morning.


Icy Mix & Rain to Wind-Driven Snow............Couple/Few Inches Possible........

This looks like a another strong, deep storm system with lots of wind.  Gusts of 40 mph are on the table.

Track is in question, but I do think this will be a situation of sleet & freezing rain to freezing rain & rain, then changeover to all snow with accumulation.  The highest winds will likely accompany the burst of snow.  Blowing & drifting is possible given the potential of a couple/few inches of accumulation.  It looks less than the Saturday storm.

IF the track shows a change, then it may turn to all snow.  IF that occurs then accumulations will be higher than "couple/few inches".

Some minor ice accumulation is possible.

Highs may peak at 34-38, then fall quickly into the 20s.

Bitterly cold air with some night well-below zero may follow. 

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Warmer Temps and Multiple Rounds of Rain Ahead
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