January 16, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Snow, ice, rain, localized flooding & high winds with coldest air of winter so far.....ahead.

Posted: Jan 16, 2020 9:32 PM
Updated: Jan 16, 2020 10:59 PM

Afternoon highs peak at 25-32 over the area.

Wind chills this morning were as low as 0 in the viewing area with low temperatures as low as 17.

5 p.m. to 3 a.m. Friday evening-night.......snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain with strong southeast to south, then south-southwest winds gusting 30-40 mph at times.  Sustained winds 15-25 mph.

Temperatures will rise from 28-32 at 5 p.m. to 32-40 at 3 a.m. northeast to southwest.  Temperatures should peak at 38-46 by 9 a.m.

This is pretty heavy precipitation & part of it will be some pretty heavy rainfall early Saturday.

If this were an all-snow event with a 10:1 ratio, it would be around 10-15".

Looks like 1-2" snow north & 1" or less south........

If we evaporatively cool or wet bulb more than expected, the snow would last longer than expected & amounts would increase. 

We will monitor.

Up to 0.20" of freezing rain & 0.1" sleet are likely.

0.90-1.50" liquid is likely (melted snow, ice & just rainfall), leading to ponding, localized flooding & rises in creeks, streams & rivers.

Rain will fall on frozen ground with melting ice & snow, resulting in rapid run-off.

Rain will taper to a period of snow showers, then flurries Saturday.  A trace to 0.5" of snow is possible.

Winds will be strong from the northwest with gusts 40-50 mph possible (isolated +50 mph) as temperatures tank to the 20s by afternoon & teens by early evening.

With lows 4-9 Sunday night, wind chills may drop to as low as -20 in the viewing area.

It looks bitterly cold Sunday with highs 7-15 with wind chills as low as -9.

The bitter cold will roll right into Tuesday of next week, though it will moderate a bit.

A few snow showers & flurries are possible Tuesday.

We should warm to 32-36 Wednesday, followed by snow & ice going to rain Thursday as temperatures warm to 36-41 by Thursday night.

Rain is likely Friday, ending as snow showers Friday night-early Saturday morning.

Winds look strong from the southeast up to 30 mph then northwest to 40 mph.

Lobes of cold will keep dropping south into the very end of January interspersed with short bouts of moderation.

January 30-February 6 mean temperature anomalies:

February 6-13:

February 13-20:

The last week of February:

Trend is for February to be snowier than normal, but overall liquid amounts to be slightly below normal.

March 2020 mean temperature anomalies:

March to looks wet with above normal precipitation (even snow, given colder temperatures).

March looks to feature above normal snowfall.

April 2020 is shaping up a bit wetter than normal.

April features near normal temperatures at the moment.  I was leaning more toward cooler than normal originally.  We will monitor.

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