Highs today reached 41-47 today after 42-47 yesterday.
Showers exit tonight, followed by a few spotty rain/snow/sleet showers overnight with even some breaks in the clouds. Winds will be southwest at 15-25 mph. Lows should drop to 31-35.
Some scattered snow showers are possible by morning, up through midday with temperatures 32-34
As -32C 500 mb cold pocket & strong rising motion around upper low arrives, numerous snow showers & squalls should bubble up in the afternoon-evening. Locally heavy squalls are possible with west-southwest winds 13-24 mph locally gusting to 40 mph in heavier squalls.
Some minor accumulation of that may fall in brief period of time of less than an hour in heavier squalls or training squall/showers.
An isolated rumble of thunder or two is possible with up to 100 J/kg elevated CAPE noted.
Temperatures should run 31-35.
Snow should wind down Friday night to just some flurries & lows 26-30.
Scattered snow showers are likely Saturday. Intensity of them will be less, but still some accumulation is likely.
Winds will be light from the northwest initially, then increase to 10-25 mph.
NAM model snowfall projections Friday to Saturday evening (1" or less much of area with isolated areas & pockets of +1" to +2"):
Snow showers & squalls are likely Sunday. Heavier localized amounts will occur in the more intense showers & squalls or where they train.
Highs will run 32-34.
After northwest winds 15-30 mph Saturday night through Sunday morning, they should decrease a bit in the later afternoon.
NAM model snowfall projections for Sunday-Sunday night (1" or less part of area, but a couple areas of 1.5 to +2"):
Monday, isolated to spotty flurries & snow showers are possible, mainly early. With mostly cloudy to cloudy skies, highs of 33-37 are likely.
Clipper should pass Tuesday with period of rain showers changing to snow with 1" or less of accumulation & highs 36-42, followed by a drop to 31-34.
Southwest winds 15-25 mph will turn to the northwest at 20-35 mph behind the front.
Wednesday looks mostly cloudy with 35-41, followed by showers developing Thursday & highs 44-50 with strong southwest winds.
Rain should end as snow late Thursday night as winds turn to the northwest.
After some snow around January 25 & 27, much colder air will move in.
We look to have a couple morning lows a bit below 0 or around 0 with a mantle of snow laid down.
Colder weather exits & warmth begins to expand back northeastward by January 30-31.
Note the CIPS analog showing elevated potential here of 0 to <0.
Note the CIPS analog showing elevated potential here of wind chills <-10.
I still think January will average above normal mean temperature-wise, but it will be the coldest month of the winter. I still think snow will end up around normal for the month at 6-12".
So, after these below normal temperatures for a while in late January.........
February 3-11 will turn much warmer with taste of spring & near/record warmth possible.
Rainfall looks above normal February 3-11 with bouts of showers & even some storms. It is a good set-up for severe weather in the southern U.S. with some severe weather reaching as far north as the Ohio Valley & even our viewing area.
We turn much colder in mid-February for a time with precipitation looking to be above normal.
This much cold air moving southward should set up over the area & front stall south of the Ohio River to Texas. It looks like a Blue Northern situation with very cold weather to Oklahoma & Texas, but warm weather across the Southeast to Mid-Atlantic.
With the blocking Bermuda high & the double-barreled Arctic high to our northwest, surface low from Texas may ride up front.
This would send an extended period of freezing rain up our way. It may all end as some sleet to snow, but main precipitation mode would be freezing rain. This would result in extensive icing for the area.
After cold spell & even a bit more snow around February 18-20, after February 22 it looks warmer than normal with taste of spring. However, rainfall looks above normal once again.
