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January 15, 11 AM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update.

Posted: Jan 15, 2021 10:27 AM
Updated: Jan 15, 2021 1:12 PM

Scattered snow showers & squalls will develop today as the clouds bubble up in the cold air aloft. This, after some snow showers with local dustings this morning & trace to 0.3" amounts.

With some sun (but also even better destablization with the cold air aloft for squalls), we may warm to 34-40 for a bit, but then fall with the snow showers & squalls this afternoon.

The SGZ or Snow Growth Zone will not be overly deep at first, so it may be more like pellets or styrofoam with the first showers before going more towards crystals or flakes as that zone deepens. I can't even rule out some graupal either.

Visibility will be greatly reduced in heavier snow showers with rapid minor accumulation this afternoon to early evening.  Gusty winds with +30 mph gusts are possible with some of the showers & squalls.

These will decrease after 6 p.m.

Although temperatures today will tend to run 32-35, the snow may come down hard enough in local squalls to accumulate on roadways.  Also, as temperatures drop to 26-30 tonight, some re-freezing of moisture & any slush of snow on roadways may lead to some slick spots.

Note the intensity of the showers/squalls without the winter mosaic product up:

1" or less of snow will be common by this evening, but some isolated pockets pockets of +1" are possible.  If some squalls can really train over an area like summer t'storms, up to +1.5" could fall in a rather short period of time.

500 mb temperatures drop to -34C this afternoon & even 700 mb temperatures will run near -21C, so it will be very, very cold aloft for snow showers to bubble up like summer pulsey t'storms.

Note the impressive up to 100 J/kg of SB CAPE yielded, which will be enough for isolated thunder & lightning discharge despite temperatures in the 30s.

Snow showers will re-develop Saturday.  Temperatures aloft are not as cold, so the more intense snow squalls are much less likely, as will be isolated thunder.

However, there will be snow around with highs 32-35 & a brisk west wind becoming northwest & increasing to gusts of +25 mph.

Watch for slick areas on roads, especially Saturday night.

1" or less of additional accumulation will be common by Saturday evening.  However, some local +1" amounts will occur as well.

Some snow showers are possible Saturday night, followed by another lobe of very cold air aloft pivoting in Sunday with 500 mb temperatures down to -35C. 

This will result in some intense snow showers & squalls with greatly reduced visibility at times & risk of an isolated rumble of thunder/lightning discharge (in the afternoon to early evening) as up to 100 J/kg SBCAPE may be occur.

Watch for slick areas on roads.

1" or less of snow will be common, but areas of +1 to as much as 3.5" may also occur in bands of heavier snow.

Be aware of slick areas on roads part of Sunday to Monday morning.

Watch for slick areas on roads Monday morning with lows 21-26 with a few lingering flurries.

The rest of the day looks mostly cloudy to cloudy with highs 33-37.

A wave of rain to snow showers is possible with an Alberta Clipper Tuesday with highs 37-42, falling to 32-35 late with brisk southwest to northwest winds.

We are warmer Wednesday with partly cloudy skies & highs 38-45 with southwest winds 15-25 mph.

Rain is possible by Thursday, ending as snow Thursday night.  Highs of 44-51 are possible with lows Thursday night of 30-35.  Winds will be strong from the southwest, turning to the northwest. Gusts +30 mph are possible.

Highs will drop to 28-35 behind that system.

Overall, January 25-30 looks colder than normal with the peak in the cold around January 27-28 with potentially the coldest temperatures of the winter.

Some snow is also possible during this period that may lay down a mantle of accumulation.

Much, much warmer weather will arrive & continue in the February 3-11 time frame.  Near/record warmth still looks possible with above to well-above normal rainfall & the risk of even t'storms.  Some severe weather threat may get as far north as the viewing area.

Still looks like cold shot with icy wintry weather mid-February & then a snow or two before we skyrocket back up temperature-wise in late February.

Lafayette
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Frankfort
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Monticello
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Warmest weather since December is ahead with good timing with the weekend rainfall...
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