January 16 Weather Forecast Update, 12:30 p.m.

More frozen precipitation ahead & winter storm Saturday.

Posted: Jan 16, 2019 11:09 AM
Updated: Jan 16, 2019 3:09 PM

TODAY:

Other than a few patches of light drizzle with some fog, the frozen precipitation should take a breather today with cloudy skies & highs 34-37.  However, later this afternoon, the temperature will begin to fall to 30-33 as initial southwest wind at 5-12 mph turns to the north & northeast at 8-14 mph. Watch for black ice development this evening on bridges & overpasses, as well as lesser-traveled roads as temperatures drop.

TONIGHT:

With northeast to east winds bleeding in colder air tonight, with lows 25-28, some patchy light freezing drizzle may re-develop this evening, followed by light snow overnight & into tomorrow morning.

Slick roadways will be an issue overnight to tomorrow morning.

TOMORROW:

It appears that a changeover from light snow to light rain & drizzle will occur in the area, but the timing of that varies depending on where you live. 

This shift will occur as wind looks to shift to the southeast, then southwest, so temperatures should rise to 34-38 tomorrow afternoon after running 29-32 in the morning. This will result in snow changing to light rain from southwest to northeast through the morning & afternoon. 

So, any icy roads should improve with time morning to afternoon. Roads should be just wet for the commute home tomorrow. 

IF it does stay colder than expected by only just 1-4 degrees, then changeover to rain would be greatly shifted southward & would result in more of the way of snow here.  Stay tuned.  This forecast is based on the latest & best information I have to put into the best analysis.

Total snowfall accumulation will run 1" or less over much of the area with the best potential of exceeding 1" some would be in the north.

APPROXIMATE TIMES FOR CHANGE-OVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN:

7 a.m. Covington to Crawfordsville & southward

8 a.m. Pine Village to Stockwell & southward

9 a.m. Boswell, Lafayette to Frankfort & southward

10 a.m. Fowler, Brookston to Michigantown & southward

12 p.m.  Kentland, Monticello to Kokomo & southward

1 p.m.  Morocco, Logansport to Grissom ARB & southward

3 p.m. Rochester to Denver & southward

However, areas of dense fog are possible, which will be an issue with the wind decreasing from the southwest at 4-8 mph in the afternoon to early evening.

We should drop back below freezing over the area after 6 p.m. as winds pick up & shift to the northwest at 10-15 mph.  This should help whisk away the fog of greatest thickness.  This, with some flurries & snow showers, will result in areas of black ice developing, especially on bridges, overpasses & untreated roadways.

TOMORROW NIGHT TO FRIDAY:

Freezing fog & mist is possible Thursday night to Friday morning with overcast skies.  Some patchy light snow grains are also possible.  Northwest winds will diminish to 4-7 mph with lows 24-26.  Black ice with this is possible Friday morning.  If we are able to clear the skies for any length of time, we could easily suddenly tank to single digits.

The rest of Friday just looks cloudy with light fog & a north wind becoming northeast late at 4-9 mph.  Highs should run 29-32.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY:

Snow should overspread the area late Friday night-Saturday morning with temperatures of 25-29.

Snow, heavy at times, should continue right through the afternoon & into the evening before tapering Saturday night.  Indeed, some local snow showers & flurries may follow right into Sunday (largely lake effect), but the main snow will exit Saturday night.

There is some warm air aloft that tries to get into areas of southern Warren to Fountain & Montgomery counties.  It is possible that some sleet will mix in with the snow there or there may even be a complete changeover to sleet there for a bit.  It is not set in stone, but possible.

Wind will be a BIG issue with this system.  East to northeast winds may gust to 40 mph during & just following the storm.  Significant blowing & drifting snow is possible.  With the wind east & then northeast, all roadways will be affected by the blowing & drifting.

Gusts to 30 mph are possible Sunday from the north, which will keep substantial blowing & drifting going on east-west roadways.  Winds should quickly relax Sunday evening after some sun developing with time & highs near 14.

Temperatures will run 27-30 Saturday & drop to 10-14 Saturday night with wind chills BELOW ZERO.

6-8" snowfall seems reasonable for much of the area.

GEFS Ensembles:

Mean:

After a bitterly cold Sunday night with lows below 0 in places with some freezing fog, clouds should increase & thicken Monday with highs near 18 with a potential clipper & southern system merger that could bring a gusty storm system of accumulating ice & snow to the area Tuesday.  Highs may run 30-34.  Winds may gust to 35 mph.

Bitterly cold air should follow with lows well-below zero.  A clipper may bring accumulating snowfall to the area next Thursday night-Friday morning.  Winds may gust to 28 mph.

Additional accumulating snowfall is possible January 27-28.

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