Low clouds will break up some today & we should become completely clear tonight with frost development & lows 28-31 after 40s to 50 today. Patchy to areas of freezing fog may develop tonight, as well.
We then become overcast, temperatures rise 31-34 & some scattered freezing rain/rain will occur early Wednesday morning, followed by some spotty showers & cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.
Highs should run 46-52 tomorrow, then falling to 39-46 late as cold front passes.
South to southwest winds will increase to gusts to 35 mph by evening.
Temperatures should tank to 17-22 tomorrow night as skies clear. Wind chills may drop to 0.
After sunshine & highs in the 20s Thursday with less wind, temperatures should level off around 20-26 Thursday night as clouds increase with southeast wind commencing.
Snow to sleet & freezing rain to rain is likely Friday-Friday night.
Accumulation is likely, but how much is in question before it changes to rain.
Rain will end as brief sleet & snow Saturday, followed by potential wind gusts of 40-50 mph from the northwest with tanking temperatures. Even with the snow, ice & rain, southeast to south-southwest wind may gust to 30 mph.
GFS model, has a long period of snow to sleet & freezing rain with substantial accumulation.
Canadian model duration of the snow to sleet is short, but freezing rain is long before going to rain.
European model has a rather short snow to ice to rain transition.
The German ICON model has a short period of snow, likely brief freezing rain episode, then the rain.
So, count on some snow & ice Friday, but amounts & duration will be timed out over the next few days.
Once I get a solid consensus on degree of cold air lingering, degree of warm air advection coming in, exact surface low track & warm front movement & how much we wet-bulb, I will be able to have some snow & ice numbers to put up.
It still looks like a moisture-rich system with 0.75-1.25" liquid here atop a frozen ground. Run-off will prolong high river levels & cause creek & stream rises to as high as bankfull.
The cold becomes dominant after Saturday. Below normal temperatures will occur much of the time late January & well into February.
If we can lay down a deep snow pack, then it will be way below normal.
These are projected temperatures at 8 a.m. on January 27 without much snow pack yet.
There are definitely projections for some snowfall events in that period with lobes of Arctic air coming southward.
I still think lows of -20 are possible.
Models lay down some nice snow cover & depth.
Most data has consistent snow cover for an extended period late January to mid February.
One U.S. model shows some amount of some snow cover January 18-February 18.
We will see, but definitely count on real winter conditions with below normal temperatures & above normal snowfall with time.
This is consistent with our analog of more cold than warm, but it just looked to be sooner. I did not expect duration of warmth to last this long in January or late December & expected at least one major blast of cold to -20 around now in January with a solid snow pack.
Fall-winter-spring 2019-20 forecast was:
1. Warm, drier October
2. Cold, wet, snowy November
3. Very mild December like 2018 (but colder & snowier Christmas to Decembr 28 followed by warm-up with heavier rainfall, then cold New Year's) with below normal snowfall overall & normal precipitation.
4. Then cold (with bitter cold to -20 & wind chill to -40 on one or two occasions) in January, but extremes with high winds with sudden heavy rainfall, river flooding, ice jam event with 70-degree rise & t'storms at one point in mid to late January). Went for above normal snowfall & precipitation overall with below normal temperatures.
5. Bitter cold early half of February (with above normal snowfall & -20), then spring-like as Southeast ridge expands into area with above normal rainfall
6. Cold, wet, snowy March with late start to spring.
7. Wetter, cooler than normal April. Above normal flood & late planting risk in the Plains & Corn Belt in the spring (not as bad as last year though).
Forecast snow depth February 11 at 8 a.m.:
Cold seems to abate in late February for a bit with a significant thaw here, but a big snow melt to cause rivers & creeks to rise.