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January 14, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

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Posted: Jan 14, 2020 12:20 PM
Updated: Jan 14, 2020 2:55 PM

Low clouds will break up some today & we should become completely clear tonight with frost development & lows 28-31 after 40s to 50 today.  Patchy to areas of freezing fog may develop tonight, as well.

We then become overcast, temperatures rise 31-34 & some scattered freezing rain/rain will occur early Wednesday morning, followed by some spotty showers & cloudy to mostly cloudy skies.

Highs should run 46-52 tomorrow, then falling to 39-46 late as cold front passes.

South to southwest winds will increase to gusts to 35 mph by evening.

Temperatures should tank to 17-22 tomorrow night as skies clear.  Wind chills may drop to 0.

After sunshine & highs in the 20s Thursday with less wind, temperatures should level off around 20-26 Thursday night as clouds increase with southeast wind commencing.

Snow to sleet & freezing rain to rain is likely Friday-Friday night.

Accumulation is likely, but how much is in question before it changes to rain.

Rain will end as brief sleet & snow Saturday, followed by potential wind gusts of 40-50 mph from the northwest with tanking temperatures.  Even with the snow, ice & rain, southeast to south-southwest wind may gust to 30 mph.

GFS model, has a long period of snow to sleet & freezing rain with substantial accumulation.

Canadian model duration of the snow to sleet is short, but freezing rain is long before going to rain.

European model has a rather short snow to ice to rain transition.

The German ICON model has a short period of snow, likely brief freezing rain episode, then the rain.

So, count on some snow & ice Friday, but amounts & duration will be timed out over the next few days.

Once I get a solid consensus on degree of cold air lingering, degree of warm air advection coming in, exact surface low track & warm front movement & how much we wet-bulb, I will be able to have some snow & ice numbers to put up.

It still looks like a moisture-rich system with 0.75-1.25" liquid here atop a frozen ground.  Run-off will prolong high river levels & cause creek & stream rises to as high as bankfull.

The cold becomes dominant after Saturday.  Below normal temperatures will occur much of the time late January & well into February.

If we can lay down a deep snow pack, then it will be way below normal.

These are projected temperatures at 8 a.m. on January 27 without much snow pack yet.

There are definitely projections for some snowfall events in that period with lobes of Arctic air coming southward.

I still think lows of -20 are possible.

Models lay down some nice snow cover & depth.

Most data has consistent snow cover for an extended period late January to mid February.

One U.S. model shows some amount of some snow cover January 18-February 18. 

We will see, but definitely count on real winter conditions with below normal temperatures & above normal snowfall with time.

This is consistent with our analog of more cold than warm, but it just looked to be sooner.  I did not expect duration of warmth to last this long in January or late December & expected at least one major blast of cold to -20 around now in January with a solid snow pack.

Fall-winter-spring 2019-20 forecast was:

1.  Warm, drier October

2.  Cold, wet, snowy November

3.  Very mild December like 2018 (but colder & snowier Christmas to Decembr 28 followed by warm-up with heavier rainfall, then cold New Year's) with below normal snowfall overall & normal precipitation.

4.  Then cold (with bitter cold to -20 & wind chill to -40 on one or two occasions) in January, but extremes with high winds with sudden heavy rainfall, river flooding, ice jam event with 70-degree rise & t'storms at one point in mid to late January).  Went for above normal snowfall & precipitation overall with below normal temperatures.

5.  Bitter cold early half of February (with above normal snowfall & -20), then spring-like as Southeast ridge expands into area with above normal rainfall

6.  Cold, wet, snowy March with late start to spring.

7.  Wetter, cooler than normal April.  Above normal flood & late planting risk in the Plains & Corn Belt in the spring (not as bad as last year though).

Forecast snow depth February 11 at 8 a.m.:

Cold seems to abate in late February for a bit with a significant thaw here, but a big snow melt to cause rivers & creeks to rise.

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Warmer finish to the week, followed rain
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