January 12, 4:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest forecast update.

Posted: Jan 12, 2020 4:25 PM
Updated: Jan 12, 2020 5:45 PM

I expected a lot of extremes this winter & a lot of wind with flooding risk, above normal snowfall, 70-degree temperature swings, ice, ice jams, even t'storms, but not extreme cold & such warmth for long periods like this.  It is extreme, but for extended periods & stuck in that extreme.  It was near/record cold in November to first of December, then unusually mild late December to mid January.

Now, rest of winter looks cold & snowy from a model & analog standpoint.

As I watched the Purdue game today, it made me think of how weather forecasting is..............from forecasting games pre-season to forecasting games the day before.  The atmosphere is a complex moving fluid as are the elements of two basketball teams made up of angles, percentages & timing (as my basketball coach Joe Higgins use to say!).

When you look at mathematical data of teams......points per game, number-ranking stamina, heart rate, analoggoing how teams behave in certain numerical conditions, rebounds per game, average free throw percentage per game, who average the most minutes per game & on & on & on, you can find who will most likely win.  You can have to teams play each other in a super computer model or simulation say 200 times to find the most likely outcome.

Who would have thought Purdue would have had their lowest scoring game since 1949 against ILLINOIS.  If you are a betting person, you probably would have lost badly.  Numerical data in that sense is thrown out the window & such a record-breaking loss makes no.....no sense at all.  Not with the kind of team we have with solid, solid players with solid number to back them up.

63-37 against unranked Illinois.  How do you account for a 71-42 victory with complete shooting turn-a-round against #8 powerhouse Michigan State?  What is different other than being at home (we lost ot TCU at home).

Again, there is more here than mathematical analysis.  What was going on at Illinois?  Was it Illini defense, but where did that defense come from when oppenents average so, so many more points against Illinois?

When it is only a very short road game away, what accounts for our lack of sync?  How do you numerically rank that sync & what is behind it?  Weather is so much like this.  You try to look back & figure out the entire atmospheric system to see what "butterfly effect" is going on.  Our team pattern did not match record low data at Illinois.

In the weather case of this warmth since Christmas, it is a combo of ozone influence in the stratosphere trickling down to the Polar Vortex, which is tight on our side of the world.  It then gets into the Southeast ridge which is continually enhanced by water that is so unusually warm.  Then you get into the unusual warm water around Australia & how that water has suddenly amped up convection there & nearby, putting us in a warm, wet phase MJO (major factor in recent warmth & flooding).

Then you get into the Mayan Express & what is happening around the Bay of Campeche & around Hondoras & Guatamala.  So in some respects, our ducks have been in a row for warmth, despite an overall Northern Hemispheric pattern that resembles 2013-14 brutal, record rough winter.....2018-19, which was an extreme winter with record brutal wind chills, than 1997-98.......or 2011-12.........very mild winters.

You can't help but notice the warming oceans around the world (over the past 10 years especially) & how analogs back in the 1920s don't work like today.

What caused one thing then may not cause the same thing now due to the warmer oceans & the different composition of CO2 in the troposphere.

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I will have maps of the total rainfall & peak wind gusts & any severe storm reports from our system tomorrow.

A total of 2-4.15" rainfall appears to have fallen Thursday night-Saturday night with a good chunk of that late Friday night-early Saturday morning.

Mostly moderate flooding is transferring from creeks & streams to rivers now with crests early in the week. 

Trace amounts of sleet, freezing rain & snow were recorded lastnight over a good chunk of the area with up to 0.3" snow in our far western fringe & up to 1" of snow right along the Kankakee River.

We breaks in the low clouds for sun in the north.  Elsewhere it is cloudy with even a few snow grains.

Evening-tonight, patchy freezing drizzle & snow grains & patchy fog are possible with steady temperatures around 32.  Watch for some slick spots on roadways from some black ice.

A couple systems will pass with gusty winds & warmth (50s Tuesday) Tuesday-Wednesday.

A few showers are possible, followed by mix to some snow showers by late Wednesday-Wednesday night as temperatures tank.  Strongest winds should Wednesday evening-night with gusts potentially 40-50 mph.

Deepest moisture for widespread, heavier rainfall should stay south of our area.

Shot of cold bitter cold tries to come in.

Southeast ridge tend to prop it up, keeping it from completely roaring southward.

Coldest time is late Wednesday night to Thursday night.

Strong storm system with lots of wind may bring ice to rain to ice to snow Friday Saturday.

Arctic air should follow.

Cold, cold pattern should dominate late January through the early part of February with risk of snow & ice.

After long reprieve from cold & snow & ice, we should catch back up for the winter.

Late January to early February temperature anomalies (CFSv2 even shows Arctic air overcoming Southeast ridge with it migrating south & east):

It warms mid-February for a thaw, then cold recharges & plunges southeastward (image below):

Overall now to late February looks colder & snowier than normal.  However, models do tend to lock up the "Polar Vortex" cold just northwest of us.  We will see.  Hopefully that is the case.  Given the Vortex tightness & strength once we passed early December, it is possible, but I am not 100% convinced yet of us avoiding -20.

Analogs say no.........those numbers say we will see -20. 

This will need to be monitored, too.

Latest trends are for a wetter-than-normal April-May period with cooler-than-normal temperatures.

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