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January 11, 10:45 AM: Winter Storm Warning for a Good Chunk of the Viewing Area

Accumulating snowfall for Saturday.

Posted: Jan. 11, 2019 9:43 AM
Updated: Jan. 11, 2019 10:51 AM

These low clouds have been painfully slow to break up.  Just when they begin breaking & eroding they fill back in again with the still strong inversion at 2000 to 9000' (below is a cross section of troposphere & note how the green & red lines suddenly spread apart a low levels after being nearly on top of eachother...........This shows saturation [overcast] at 2000' & that moisture trapped underneath a dry, warm layer or lid).  Note how there is just very little wind or mixing below 9000' to get rid of this.

I figured we would get some mixing by now with approaching winter storm, but not quite yet.

Where there was some consistent clearing last night-this morning, temperatures dropped to the teens (far southwest), but it has been pretty steady in the 20s over about 90% of the viewing area.

Even as the low clouds begin to break very slowly, the high & mid clouds from the winter storm will already be dimming & fading the sun.  So, not much of a window for nice sunshine :(

Storm has continued to show a slight shift northward in each model run.  That said, 5-8" is likely south of Route 18 now with 3-5" north of there.

That said, NWS has the Winter Storm Warning up for a good chunk of the viewing area.

Scope of the storm is from the southern Rockies to the Mid-Atlantic.  Bulls-eye of heaviest snowfall from the storm in our region is near St. Louis where some isolated +12" totals are possible in a larger 8-12" area.

At first I though this snow would be quite heavy & wet (13:1 ratio) & indeed it will still be a sticky, wet snow.  However, good, efficient snow making with right entrance region of upper jet overhead, along with good frontagenetical forcing in the SGZ should promote near normal snow ratio of 10:1, even with some melting due to temperatures in the lower 30s.  This ratio alteration is another reason totals have been increased.

So.............the nuts & bolts:

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION: 

5-8" south of Indiana 18 & 3-5" north of there by Saturday night at 1 a.m.

SNOW BEGINS: 

Fountain, Montgomery, Warren - 2-3 a.m.

Benton, Clinton, Tippecanoe - 3-5 a.m.

Carroll, Howard - 5-7 a.m.

White, Newton, Jasper - 6-9 a.m.

Pulaski, Cass, Miami, Fulton - 8-10 a.m.

ACCUMULATING SNOW ENDS:

Newton, Jasper - 8-9 p.m.

Benton, White, Pulaski, Fulton - 9-10 p.m.

Cass, Miami - 10-11 p.m.

Warren, Tippecanoe, Carroll, Howard - 11-12 a.m.

Fountain, Montgomery, Clinton - 12-1 a.m.

SNOW RATIO: 

10:1

TEMPERATURES DURING EVENT: 

30-33 degrees

WIND DURING EVENT:

East to east-northeast 6-12 mph, then increasing in the evening to 10-20 mph.

LOWS BY SUNDAY MORNING:

23-25 degrees

SUNDAY WEATHER:

Cloudy with a few flurries & highs 27-30.  Winds increase in the morning to 15-25 mph from the northeast 2 a.m. to 12 p.m., which may result in some minor blowing & drifting snow (especially as the temperatures drop to 23-25 early Sunday morning & top layer of snow dries with gradual compacting & hardening layer of the sticky snow underneath) on north-south & east-west roadways.  Winds should decrease to north-northeast at 5-10 mph in the afternoon, resulting in ending to blowing & drifting.

DRIVING IMPACTS:

Roads will become snow covered & slippery & some blowing & drifting snow Sunday morning to midday will re-coat some roads that will have been cleared by equipment.

Article Comments

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Wind chill advisory until noon.
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