If you are looking for a big +7" snow or significant winter storm from now to February 10, I just don't see it.  We will monitor for any changes.

Minor snowfall possible?  Yes.  Big snows?  No.

This is still a ho-hum pattern that has been with us since last week.  Clouds dominate, temperatures are seasonable to slightly above normal & precipitation is lacking.

It is split flow with subtropical jet active well south of our area, merging with polar jet.  The deep moisture is from the Pacific Northwest to the Southern U.S., not here.

The Southeast is colder than normal with above normal precipitation while Canada & the northern part of the U.S. is drier & warmer than normal. 

Off all the players on the court right now, the +PNA is the dominator bringing this pattern.  It is outperforming all other influencers.  -AO & -NAO try to dominate & can't really.  La Nina is trying to flex & can't too much.  MJO has subtle influence at the moment.

+EPO &  is flexing as well, limiting intense cold intrusion currently.

We warm a bit this week to some 40s by mid to late week with a few showers Thursday with this Alberta Clipper system.

The few showers should end as some snow showers.

Periodic snow showers are likely Friday, Saturday & Sunday next weekend.  Highs will cool to the upper 20s to lower 30s with lows near 20 to the 20s.

Some minor snowfall accumulation is possible with gusty west to northwest winds +30 mph.

Strong cold front will clipper is due in here around January 19-20 (a week from early this week).  A wave of snow showers is possible with some very minor accumulation.

This will be the shot of much colder air that could be the coldest of the winter with lows -3 to 3.

Looks pretty cool, but not terrible in late, late January.  There will still be risk of minor snowfalls.  However, again, there is no sucker-punch winter storm or big, big snow currently.  The snows may still add up to near normal for January at 6-12".  The snow after January 23 looks the heaviest.

However, early February looks unusually warm with showers & storms.  There is still a good analog signature for near/record warmth & now it is beginning to show up in long-term model data.

The players for surge of warmth look to line up.

Following all of the warm, there is still a tendency for cold surge near mid-February.

This would be the foundation for the icing as front stall just south of our area.