SEVERE WX : Excessive Heat Warning View Alerts

January 1, 11 PM Weather Forecast Outlook

Digging into the trends...........

Posted: Jan 1, 2019 10:45 PM
Updated: Jan 2, 2019 10:32 AM

The U.S. CFS model has insane warmth January to mid February with not a single day below normal in our area through February 14.  It also shows dry pattern with only around 2.5" of liquid when normal is more like 4".  It brings literally only three dustings to 1" to February.

This is like a 1932 or 2012 winter scenario per CFS.

It has temperatures up to 50 degrees above normal near Hudson Bay around January 17 & 35-40 degrees above normal here January 29 (would mean highs 68-73 here, which would blow records away).

Much of the U.S. looks drier than normal with only the Deep South seeing above normal rainfall, if the CFS is right.

I cannot figure out why I has swung back so incredibly warm.  With weak El Nino Modoki, low solar, stratospheric warming underway & Polar Vortex weakening into three lobes, I just cannot wrap my head around so much warmth January to mid-February.

I am still going for bitterly cold weather after mid-January & into February with snows given the players on the field & the analog data & the fact that the intense convection east of the Indian Ocean continues to work eastward (bringing about cold phase MJO).

This pattern is exactly opposite of what the overall analog pattern looked like in January & February.

I figured we'd have a week of warmth, rain & t'storms (spring-like) the last week of December, but the overall softness since mid-December surprises me.  It is lasting into January too!

I was mentioning to my wife the other day that analogs just may become out of date.  What caused one pattern in the 1890s, or 1950s or 1970s, may bring something different as we approach the 2020s.  On paper, analogs say one thing strongly, but this day in age, it doesn't turn out that way at times.  It may be tied to just the sheer amount of greenhouse gas we are pumping out, which only the oceans & vegetation can absorb so much.  The concentrations are changing.  It is going to be interesting to see how this evolves, especially with such a low solar period.  Every month October-March looked below normal in the winter forecast with embedded warm surges, but not enough to throw the "below normal" off.  Analog data for the winter still shows what should be cold like last winter (-17...............it was rough for a while!) coming in with above normal snowfall.  We should bottom out in February with this! 

So, still shooting for 30-40" snow for the snow season now to April with greatest amounts in February with below normal months (temperature-wise) for January, February & March, barring our own U.S. CFS model seeing something that I cannot put my finger on.

That said.................

Some patchy light freezing drizzle & snow are possible tonight & into tomorrow.  This should exit tomorrow evening.  Liquid amounts of trace-0.02" are likely, so it will be light, but a couple/few slick spots here & there cannot be ruled out at any point.  Any snowfall tonight-tomorrow evening would only be a little bit of dandruff or powdered on your windshield or car top or roof to some grass & that is it..

After upper 20s tonight, highs tomorrow near 32 will suffice, following by clearing & lows near 22 tomorrow night with frost.

Mostly sunny skies Thursday will give way to some increasing clouds later in the day with highs 36-40.

Friday system looks to stay mainly south of us, but put 30% pops in for rain/mix (mainly in the south) with highs near 40 on account of some uncertainty lingering on exact track.

Saturday & Sunday look good with partly cloudy, breezy conditions & highs 46-51 & lows 27-31.

Rain is likely Monday with 47-51 with lows 42-45.

Rain should end Tuesday morning with early highs of 45-50, then falling temperatures through the 40s with mostly cloudy to cloudy skies through the afternoon & evening.  It looks breezy Monday & windy Tuesday.

Note the pattern change in the GFS model.  We go to northwest flow with clipper, followed by Arctic highs.  Much colder times are ahead.

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