January 8, 12:30 PM Update

Here is your latest update on the forecast & outlook for now through Summer & beyond.

Posted: Jan 7, 2021 9:21 PM
Updated: Jan 8, 2021 1:08 PM

Normal snowfall for the viewing area as a whole October 1-January 8 is around 8-13".  So far in the 2020-21 snow season, totals are 2.5-9.2".

Anything green shades are at or above normal.  Blues are 1.75x to 4x above normal.

The entire viewing & state are running below normal snowfall-wise.

Highs Highs Thursday ran 36-40.

Lows this morning ran 27-32 & we are 30-37 as of noon.  It is warmest where the gaping hole in the low overcast is located.


Enjoy the hole in the overcast!  We are lucky, it is largely overcast from Canada to the Gulf Coast & the hole should fill in with time & we become mostly cloudy to cloudy area-wide again.

As clouds fill in & hang on through the weekend, a few spits of snow or snow showers are possible.

Highs will run in the 30s with lows in the 20s to around 30 tonight through Sunday night.  The wind will be decreasing with direction from north to northwest.

Lots of clouds with some sun will occur Monday-Tuesday with highs near 40 to the mid 40s.  Low to upper 40s are possible Wednesday with lots of clouds & a strong southwest wind.

Scattered showers are possible Thursday with 40s, ending as snow showers Thursday night-Friday AM.

Scattered flurries & snow showers are likely Friday with temperatures steady around 30-33, then falling to 28-31.

Very minor accumulation is possible in places with strong west to northwest winds gusting +30 mph.

With 30s & lows near 20 to the 20s, some period snow/snow showers are likely Saturday-Sunday of next weekend.

Minor accumulation is possible with strong, gusty winds from the southwest to northwest of +30 mph.

There has been a lot of rhetoric online about "Polar Vortex" & "blizzard" & "winter storms" & -20 or -15 & -40 wind chills.  This once again more rhetoric.

Yes, there is a cold shot coming in around January 20 for a few days & it looks colder for several days in the latter stage of January (January 19-27).  Yes, we will likely see a night or two that gets to just a bit below 0 or near 0, but it isn't the kind of cold being thrown out online from I what I see in data.

Count on a big, relatively bried blast of colder weather that may be the coldest of the winter & a minor blanket or covering of snow down.  Blizzard?  Still doesn't look so.  Big winter storm?  Still doesn't look so.  Some snow accumulation with imapcts?  Yes.  10 to 20 degrees below normal temperature wise?  Yes.

Temperature anomalies January 19-21 below (January 20 looks to be the heart of it & the coldest day)........There will be a bit of another re-enforcing short around January 25-27, too:

There are still signs of a big-time warm-up as we end January & move to early February with showers, storms & risk of even some severe weather.  Near/record highs are possible.

Note the projected temperature anomalies & I continue to side with this based on analysis of projected teleconnections from models & analog data:

We turn colder behind this system (below normal, but not excessively so).

We then warm up briefly, then chill to set the stage for potenting icing.

This is a good set-up for icing.  Whether it occur or not we will see, but I have to tell you this is something that has shown up in my analogs for a while & the longer-range models are now hinting at it.

This is around February 8 with front stalled & unseasonably warm south of the front & cold bleeding in behind it undercutting the warmth. 

A Bermuda-type high will likely set up off the southeast coast, pumping deep tropical moisture northeastward along the front with cold upper low in California ejecting waves along the front.

This would promote an extended rainfall event here.  However, we may have an extended period of time at or below 32, leading to icing or even an ice storm.

We will continue to monitor.  I recognize the pattern & the analog data & the overall trend for months, but we will see what actually unfolds in model data & shorter-range analogs.

Eventually, we may see a period of rain to accumulating snow from it with colder weather as the upper low eject out of California & pivots into Texas & Oklahoma.  It should migrate east & northeastward.  This would occur near February 10-11, it appears.

The other signal seen is surge of unseasonable spring-like warmth there after with more rainfall & severe weather risk.

Focus is on wetness, warmth & severe weather risk March-April with the early start to spring.  It should also be an earlier than normal start to spring flower & foliage emergence.  Could this set us up for a late, disastrous hard freeze like we had twice last spring?  I still don't see that coming right now.

However, there continues to be increasing evidence that the below normal rainfall begins in May here, setting us up for the Summer drought & heat.

Unless we see multiple significant tropical systems late summer-fall, it looks like a dry, hotter trend May to October 2021.

More model data & ensembles keep us in La Nina through next Fall, though with decreasing strength. However, I am beginning to shift my thinking into more of a double La Nina mode than going neutral or back to El Nino for Fall-Winter-Spring 2021-22.  This will play a big influence on the late 2021 to early 2022 seasons.

We will continually monitor with frequent updates.

If this does occur the outcome could be different compared to 2020-21 winter, despite it still being a La Nina.  If the strength is less then more dominant player(s) will emerge overall.  If the core of the La Nina in the Pacific moves, then things will change as well.

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