You can feel the difference outside today. The heat is moving in!
Clusters of severe storms are lined up from Iowa to Georgia on the periphery of the main edge of the heat wave. These clusters will tend to stay southwest of our area, but I cannot rule out an isolated storm popping in our southwestern part of the viewing area this evening-tonight. A isolated shower/storm is possible overnight in the southwest, as well. Otherwise, it looks dry with lows tonight near 70.
NOW-FRIDAY MORNING PROJECTION:
Friday's heat looks intense with 90-95 with heat indices 100-110. With sunshine & a some clouds, an isolated storm cannot be ruled out.
After only 75 Friday night, Saturday will feature building clouds with sunshine & highs 92-96 with heat indices 101-112. A few widely-scattered storms will develop. An isolated wet microburst (core of intense, damaging wind that hits the ground & fans out over a small less than 2.5-mile area) is possible given the intense heating with a layer of dry air in the mid-levels. What goes up, must come down. This intense heat & humidity produced strong updrafts for storms, but very strong downdrafts & the layer of dry air aloft & heavy rainfall enhances those downdrafts. However, then these types of storms completely collapse & the sun appears. Coverage of the storms will only run 30%, however.
Also, it is important to note that as a meterologist, you have to watch these "ridge riders" in the "Ring of Fire" or edge of the heat wave. Indeed, the edge may be to our northeast & we have an isolated storm Friday & a few scattered storms Saturday & a few more Sunday, but I have seen these organized complexes, clusters & bows just completely deviate off the beaten path before.
Even though the main wind fields for bows of more widespread severe weather are to our north, if it rain extra-heavily through that dry air on the southwestern flank of one of these bows, that pool of rain-chilled air will pull the bow more to the south or southwest.
At that point, it is like a car that is on the interstate, tracking right along the pathy of least resistance & you blow a tire & it pulls you off the road & through grass, an embankment & into a field. That has happened in this pattern before & models often do NOT catch it or if they do, it is a very high-resolution model only an hour out from when it occurs or during the evolution of the event.
SOMETIMES THIS HAPPENS OUT OF THE BLUE IN SUCH A REGIME:
After 76 & some patchy fog Saturday night, more in the way of scattered storms may pop Sunday with 40% coverage. Isolated microburst is possible with highs 90-95 & heat indices 101-108.
Peak of storm coverage will tend to be Sunday night to Monday with a large mass or line of rain & storms passing through. Severe threat looks isolated (isolated severe gust or two) with the main corridor of shear & wind fields aloft for severe weather north of the area.
TUESDAY-JULY 4TH & BEYOND:
Tuesday currently looks dry with near 88 & heat indices near 95.
Unfortunately, the showers/storms for Wednesday night are tending to speed up. It is looking more & more like scattered storms Wednesday right into Wednesday night. Good news is that there will be breaks. It will be hot & humid with highs near 88 & heat indices near 95.
Heat wave resurgence may occur later next week, but beyond July 10 to perhaps the end of the month, the pattern favors overall cooler-than-normal temperatures & normal rainfall. So, an extended break from the intense heat is expected.
At this point, it appears that summer may peak this weekend & late next week...........until perhaps August.