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SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

February 9, 11 PM Short-, Medium- & Long-Range Update

Here is your latest forecast update for now to Summer!

Posted: Feb 10, 2021 10:04 PM
Updated: Feb 10, 2021 11:20 PM

0.5-2" has been reported so far over the area today.  Total snow depth is 3-12" south to north.

Areas of snow will continue to pass through tonight to early Thursday.  An additional less than 1" is expected.  Around 1" to 3" is expected by Thursday morning.  Some minor blowing & drifting is expected tonight to Thursday morning with north-northeast winds 13-24 mph.

Sporadic flurries to snow showers are possible at times Thursday-Saturday with off & on sun blended in with clouds.

Some very minor accumulation is possible.  We will monitor to make sure none of these shortwaves, blended with some lake effect over perform & we need to beef up any periods of accumulation.

Highs will run in the 20s with lows in the teens.

After an early high of teens Sunday, temperatures will fall to single digits to 10 by afternoon.  Winds may lead to wind chills -22 to -15 by Sunday night with lows of -8 to -1.

Widespread snowfall is possible Sunday night-Monday with increasing northeast to north winds to 40 mph. 

Some minor snowfall is possible Tuesday with highs teens & 20s with lows single digits & teens.

Some minor snowfall is possible Tuesday with highs teens & 20s with lows single digits & teens.

We need to watch next Thursday for ice &/or snow or even some rain thrown into the southeast.  Storm track will dictate what the dominant precipitation type is. 

Strong, gusty winds should occur with the system.

Looks like rain February 21-22 with windy, much warmer weather.

With rain & a big thaw, we need to watch for ice jams & localized flooding.

I think some effects of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event & subsequent loosening of the Polar Vortex & large amount of snow cover lingering over a large area may keep flirtations & pieces of below normal temperatures amidst surges of above normal temperatures in early March. 

The precipitation trend is slightly below normal for early March, indicating more of a west-southwest to west & northwest flow showing alternating colder clipper systems & warmer downsloping, dry winds out of the Plains of Kansas to Oklahoma.

This would also tend to indicate more in the way of sunshine with such a more Pacific-oriented flow & drier northwest flow.

However, mid to late March trend is warmer than normal with early onset of persistent spring weather.

It also looks wetter than normal for that time.

I am focused on wetter & warmer than normal overall March to early May with elevated severe weather risk & outbreaks threat (compared to the last several years).  It looks the most active since 2011.

Unless we get a "Ring of Fire" pattern established right over the area this Summer for multiple periods &/or the tropics really open up for us with tropical remnants, there will be high probability of drought.

My analog analysis & model data supports this notion.

Thoughts are that the overall drier trend should begin in May & last in varying degrees of intensity to October.

Summer rainfall anomalies:

U.S. CFS:

Euro ECMWF:

It still looks like a hotter than normal summer with the first 100s in the viewing area since 2012.  In such a pattern, there will be the threat of a Serial Derecho in the "Ring of Fire".  Also, in such boiling heat with frequent capping, air-mass, pulsey storms may pop with highly-variable rainfall amounts in the summer with an elevated microburst threat. 

2012 was very hot & dry May-early August, but we had some pulsey storms with some microbursts in many boiling, capped environment where the lid broke & blew up some random storms.

Summer temperature anomalies via Euro shows the expanding heat centered over the worsening drought over the Southwest U.S. & over the Plains merging with the developing drought in the Southeast (note the continuing La Nina in the eastern Equatorial Pacific or the band of dark blue color):

Lafayette
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 56°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
49° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 49°
Rensselaer
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 50°
Lafayette
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 56°
Danville
Clear
55° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 55°
Frankfort
Clear
52° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 52°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
52° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 52°
Monticello
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 50°
Monticello
Clear
51° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 51°
Logansport
Clear
48° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 48°
Warmest weather since December is ahead with good timing with the weekend rainfall...
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Cases: 660071

Reported Deaths: 12531
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion904161633
Lake48298874
Allen35720633
Hamilton31970396
St. Joseph29796510
Elkhart25331412
Vanderburgh21192377
Tippecanoe19927199
Johnson16312356
Porter15917269
Hendricks15785300
Clark11913180
Madison11717315
Vigo11562229
Monroe10300159
Delaware9824179
LaPorte9739196
Howard9038195
Kosciusko8539108
Bartholomew7424147
Hancock7399130
Warrick7399150
Floyd7180167
Wayne6622191
Grant6413157
Boone606888
Morgan6066124
Dubois5890111
Dearborn544466
Cass542899
Marshall5414104
Henry541392
Noble508476
Jackson464165
Shelby459890
Lawrence4174111
Gibson400981
Harrison397863
Clinton394453
Montgomery385083
DeKalb384378
Knox356285
Miami356163
Whitley348435
Huntington341876
Steuben337455
Wabash330576
Putnam328259
Ripley326461
Adams322149
Jasper314843
White297152
Jefferson293773
Daviess285096
Fayette271156
Decatur270188
Greene260780
Posey260431
Wells257174
Scott250050
LaGrange240770
Clay240344
Randolph225376
Spencer216930
Jennings214344
Washington209927
Sullivan202939
Fountain201042
Starke187250
Owen181953
Fulton177937
Jay177528
Carroll176218
Perry173335
Orange170950
Rush164322
Vermillion160141
Franklin159135
Tipton145941
Parke138615
Pike127432
Blackford120527
Pulaski106544
Newton96531
Brown94839
Benton91713
Crawford90313
Martin80114
Warren75312
Switzerland7527
Union66910
Ohio52911
Unassigned0433

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