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SEVERE WX : Flood Warning View Alerts

February 7, 11:15 AM Weather Forecast Update

Bitterly cold this morning & through today....snow ahead in the forecast.

Posted: Feb 7, 2021 10:46 AM
Updated: Feb 7, 2021 1:53 PM

Overall snowfall Saturday evening-early night ran from a dusting in our far east & southeast to 2.7" in Newton County.

I measured about 1".  Highest total was west of Brook with 2.7".  2" was reported by Jim at Kentland.  Mary Ann in Remington measured 1.5".  This was part of the band of heavier snow with to 3" in Iroqouis through Livingston & Woodford counties in Illinois.

Tim in Veedersburg measured 1.5" snow, but Randy in Frankfort had 0.5".  John in Fowler had 1.7".  CoCo observer in Denver measured 1" & 1" was measured at Kewanna.

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It is a bitterly cold morning........the coldest since mid-February of last year when lows dropped to as low as -20, wiping out the peach crop for a second year.

The -3 at the Purdue Airport & the -4 at our WLFI ob site beat the 9 saw back in late January for coldest temperature of the year.  Interestingly, this is one of the latest occurrences of the temperature dropping below 9 in a winter since 1879 for Greater Lafayette.

The wind chill at the airport dropped to -18, as well as our WLFI ob site.

Overall, viewing area lows dropped from -12 to 0.

Much of the area was -7 to 0.  Fowler, Jasper County Airport & White County Airport tanked to -12!

Wind chill at Mary Anne's weather station in Remington dropped to -25, while it tanked to -26 at the Kentland Airport to -28 at Fowler, the lowest measured wind chill in the viewing area.

Overall wind chills dropped to -28 to -14.

Minimum actual air temperatures this morning:

0  Covington

-2  Crawfordsville

-3 New Market...Attica

-4  Rochester-Fulton County Airport...Peru Municipal Airport

-5  Kokomo Muncipal Airport

-6  Grissom ARB...Winamac...Flora

-7  Delphi...Flora Municipal Airport

-8  Logansport-Cass County Airport

-9  Kentland Municipal Airport

-10 Morocco

-11  Remington

-12  Rensselaer-Jasper County Airport...Monticello-White County Airport...Fowler

Minimum wind chills this morning:

-28  Fowler

-27  Monticello-White County Airport

-26  Kentland Municipal Airport

-25  Remington...Morocco

-24  Flora Municipal Airport

-22  Kokomo Municipal Airport

-21  Rensselaer-Jasper County Airport...Grissom ARB...Delphi...Attica

-20  Winamac...Crawfordsville...New Market

-18  Purdue University Airport...Rochester-Fulton County Airport...Peru Municipal Airport

-14  Covington

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Temperatures are -3 to 3 over the viewing area as of 11 a.m. with wind chills as low as -19.

Highs today should run single digits to near 12 in the south.  Clouds will be on the increase late.

Tonight, temperatures should begin to rise some.

It appears that one wave of light snow will pass later tonight-early Monday, then a bit more occasionally Monday late morning-midday.

The main wave should pass Monday evening-night.

After a dusting/coating possible later tonight-early Monday, 1-3" of snow is expected Monday evening-night (higher end totals in northwestern areas).

Highs should reach 21-31 north to south by late Monday evening-early Monday night.

Blowing & drifting snow is possible Monday night-Tuesday AM with north-northwest to north winds gusting to 35 mph.

18-25 & some lake effect snow showers are expected Tuesday over parts of the area.

There is a trend to bring the Wednesday storm system northward with snow here.  It could be quite a bit of icing south of I-70 in Indiana & rain along & south of I-64 in far southern Indiana.

Any slight track deviation to the north could bring some of the ice as far north as I-74.  We will monitor.  It looks like all snow right now.

Highs of 16-25 are expected north to south.

1-3" of snow looks possible here with actually the higher end of that in our southern areas.

It is a good set-up for icing mid to late next week from Oklahoma & Texas to the Northeast.

You can see the sharp cut-off taking shape even by early week with the warmth in the Southeast & the colder weather farther north.

It is a good set-up for an ice storm from Texas to the Northeast in mid-February, but it looks more like all snow here.

The U.S. models have too much of a cold bias with making cold next week through the following week historic with even all-time record cold in places.

I prefer the Euro model.  The Japanese, UK & German models also handle our cold much, much better.

These are projected UKMET model low temperatures for late next week.  Note the very warm weather in the Southeast.  I agree with his model.  Icing will be underway northern Texas & Oklahoma to the Northeast.

I do think the warmer air will be nudging into the Mid-Atlantic & Northeast more than this model shows, however.

This are the projected low temperatures next weekend, which I agree with.

I do not agree with the extreme, extreme data U.S. models are showing.

Looks like we have this cold pattern right through mid-February before things greatly improve in late February.

These are lows projected for February 19 or 20.  Note the much warmer weather, especially in the Plains!  For example, Minneapolis looks 54 degrees warmer for a low temperature than what occurred just days prior.

The SSW event & loosening Polar Vortex event looks over & warmer drivers then begin to take over with benefit of increasing February sun angle.

Early March this year does not look like early March last year (cold).  It also looks nothing like early March 2019 (the coldest since 1960).

I agree more with the European model compared to the U.S. GFS & CFSV2 currently.

The Euro still greatly warms it up in March with above normal temperatures & earlier spring. This makes sense in the pattern.  The SSW event impacts should be over & the warmer drivers should take over.

It shows drier weather in the Southeast & wetter that normal weather here with surface pressures lower than normal in the Plains & higher than normal off the Southeast coast.

This indicates strong storm systems & strong southerly flow for us with heavy snow in the Northern Plains, but greater severe weather risk here.

Toward summer, eyes will focus on the massive drought in the West expanding greatly east & northeastward.  Right now, northwestern counties are in Moderate Drought, but that should improve with wetter March-April conditions.

However, drought looks to develop in Summer with lots of heat.

Southeast drought should develop in spring & then merge with our developing summer drought & Plains drought.  We may end up not necessarily with the worst drought conditions for the U.S. since 2012, but the most WIDESPREAD drought conditions in the U.S. since 2012.

Wildcard is still the tropics for wetter weather here.  Also, if we can line up the "Ring of Fire" for a time here, it will get wetter.  There is still higher likelihood of a Serial Derecho in the "Ring of FIre" over the summer. 

There is still pretty high probability of the first 100s in the viewing area since 2012.  The hottest we have been in the viewing area anywhere since 2012 is 99 & that was in May 2018!  This was the hottest May weather since 1911 & the only May temperatures getting that hot other than 1911 (since at least 1879). 

Lafayette
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 56°
Kokomo
Clear
49° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 47°
Rensselaer
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 50°
Lafayette
Clear
56° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 56°
Danville
Clear
54° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 54°
Frankfort
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 50°
Frankfort
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 50°
Monticello
Clear
49° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 49°
Monticello
Clear
49° wxIcon
Hi: 53° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 49°
Logansport
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 46°
Warmest weather since December is ahead with good timing with the weekend rainfall...
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