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February 7, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

The new data is in regarding this blast of cold, cold air & how much snow may fall late weekend right to February 24. I also have a peek to summer based on the latest trends.

Posted: Feb 7, 2019 9:04 PM
Updated: Feb 8, 2019 3:05 PM

Tuesday-Thursday rainfall totals range from 0.50" in the northwest to 2.5" in the far south.  Those higher totals were part of the extensive flooding from Missouri to southern Indiana & Ohio with up to 7" of rainfall.  Many, many roads are closed due to high water south of I-70 in Indiana & significant to even some major river flooding is expected.

Our highs today reached the 50s to 60 once the heavier rains pulled out.

Temperatures as of 10 p.m. are running 17 to 29 northwest to southeast over the viewing area.

With passage of the Arctic front & the winds immediately behind it, gusts reached as high as 55 mph.  Highest gust was measured at 5 miles east-northeast of Michigantown at 4:59 p.m. on the Townsend Farm weather station (that particular gust occurred with passage of the Arctic front).

After a bit of freezing drizzle & a couple flurries, a wave of flurries & snow showers is moving in.  This may put down a light dusting that blows around.  Note how the flurries & snow showers are arranged in lines or waves indicating the very strong winds several thousand feet up.

Watch for frozen puddles & areas of frozen moisture on roadways from the flash freezing.  The light dusting of snow in places may make for a slick spot or two, as well.

Temperatures will continue to tank to 5-13 tonight with wind chills as low as -14 by morning with some clearing.  Gusts of 30-40 mph will continue tonight from the west.

Wind chills all day tomorrow will run near 0 to a bit below zero with highs 15-21.  The sun will look good though!  Gusts of 25-35 mph will continue tomorrow from the west.

Note the snow rapidly develop Saturday night-early Sunday morning to our west & northwest.

Highs will run in the 20s Saturday with lots of sunshine, but increasing high/mid clouds by evening.

1-3" is possible Sunday midday to evening.  Highs will run 27-31. 

Snow, ice will move in late Monday evening & last into Monday night with accumulation possible.  Any snow should go to all ice Tuesday, then part of it will change to all rain, before changing back to ice & then snow with accumulation before ending.  Winds will be gusty with this storm at the first part of it from the east & southeast up to 35 mph, then on the tail end & just behind it from the west & northwest up to 45 mph.

Temperatures will rise from the 20s to mid to upper 30s, then back down to the 20s in the duration of the storm.

Additional snow & ice is possible on three occasions February 15-24.  Bouts of bitter cold will be in here off & on.  I would not be surprised if we see some below 0 actual air temperatures & snow to the Gulf Coast with frost & freezing to central Florida.

They are lined up February 10-24 (& there will likely be a deep southern winter system embedded in all of it):

A flash thaw & flash spring is possible in the February 26-28 period, followed by below to well-below normal temperatures & some snow & ice into early March.

I still think we will really turn around around & after March 12 for a 1.5- to 2-month period where above normal temperatures tend to dominate.

So, March-May period looks warmer than normal with normal rainfall overall.

March-May Temperature Anomalies (Deviations from Normal..................Green & Blue is Cooler Than Normal, Yellow & Orange to Red is Warmer Than Normal):

March-May Rainfall Anomalies (Deviations from Normal..................Green & Blue is Wetter Than Normal, Yellow & Orange to Red is Drier Than Normal)::

So, what about June, July & August of 2019?

Temperatures may average below normal with rainfall below normal.  There is a tendency for a stormier than normal summer as we approach La Nina & us in the zone between cooler weather to the north & hotter & drier weather in the Southern Plains & South.

As we exit Modoki & move into neutral, then trend to La Nina, here is what the late spring to summer looks like (after analyzing all the years since 1950 & looking at the ones whose pattern this winter & projected one this spring resembles, followed by the summer outcome).  I do not see a lot of changes from our initial summer outlooks dating back to late fall.

June-August Temperature Anomalies (Deviations from Normal..................Green & Blue is Cooler Than Normal, Yellow & Orange to Red is Warmer Than Normal):

June-August Rainfall Anomalies (Deviations from Normal..................Green & Blue is Wetter Than Normal, Yellow & Orange to Red is Drier Than Normal)::

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More rainfall ahead.
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