After highs near 40 to the lower 50s north to south Wednesday morning, temperatures fell during the day to the 30s to around 40. Tonight, however, we are now warming as warm front migrates northward. Temperatures are rising into the 40-45 range & will run 42-50 by Thursday morning. Highs Thursday should reach 54-62 over the area.
Scattered showers with isolated thunder are likely tonight with areas of dense fog.
Widespread rainfall with embedded storms are likely Thursday morning to around midday before they gradually taper to just some rain & then end as a gusty line of showers (then brief flurries/few snow showers).
The colder air will rush in quickly. South-southwest winds will run 15-33 mph during the day, followed by some gusts 35-45 mph from the west with & just behind the passage of the Arctic front.
Some hailers are possible Thursday or pea, marble size to nickel size. Best potential of any hail to even isolated large hail (+1" diameter) is south of Indiana 26 in the morning to midday period. I would think that at least a Marginal Risk of severe weather would be expanded northward to cover southern piece viewing area with an expansion of the Slight Risk to southern Indiana.
More surface-based severe weather with wind & a few tornadoes (with hail) is shaping up well south of our area toward the Lower Ohio Valley where temperatures may reach in 70 in some areas.
Heavy rainfall will lead to some flash flooding of ditches, creeks, streams, lawns & fields.
Before all is said & done Thursday evening, Tuesday-Thursday rainfall will run 1-3".
Tonight-Thursday rainfall will run 0.50 to as much as 2" of additional rainfall (atop the 0.30-0.90" that has already fallen). Heaviest final totals & totals tonight-Thursday should occur in our southern & southeastern areas.
Friday will be cold & windy, but bright with highs 15-21 after morning lows of 8-14 with wind chills -12 to -4.
Cold Saturday with 20s will give way to upper 20s to 30 Sunday.
Wave of snow is possible late Sunday-Sunday night. 1-3" is possible. The 3-5" band looks to set up southwest of the area, but we will monitor.
Snow, ice & wind are possible Tuesday evening-night to Wednesday morning next week.
Additional snow is possible Friday evening-night of next week.
Ice & snow are possible around February 19-20.
Bouts of bitterly cold weather will nestle in-between the systems amidst some temperatures moderation, but overall temperatures should run below normal.
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