February 5, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update: Weather Oddities & Swings In This Forecast

Some odd weather is ahead with big temperature swings!

Posted: Feb 5, 2019 4:12 PM
Updated: Feb 5, 2019 5:29 PM

Lots of oddities & big swings ahead!!!

Significant ice storm with widespread damage to trees & powerlines is expected just northwest of our area with up to 1.25" of glaze ice.  Ice Storm Warning is up.

A massive area of cold Arctic air is bleeding into the western & central U.S. Snow & sleet have gotten to some of the lowest levels in southern California in years.  Snow has fallen around Monterrey, California.  Seattle is looking at lows in the teens after their heavy snowfall.  Up to this point, Seattle had only dropped to 32 three times since October.  It is a mild, marine climate, so this is bitter cold for them.

Bermuda high is bringing early spring weather to the South.  It was 77 in southern Missouri yesterday, 80 near Little Rock, Arkansas, 83 near Dallas, Texas.  Even now, it is 70 at Bowling Green, Kentucky & 73 at Washington, D.C.  low to mid 70s are occurring over much of the state of Virginia. 

This high is blocking the Arctic front from making progress southward, but also, very deep western trough is also helping to keep the balance toward warmth in the Southeast.

This very warm, moist, unstable air, loaded with deep tropical moisture is being thrust up & over the Arctic front.

More & more Ice Storm Warnings will pop up from Texas to Michigan in the coming days as a prolonged, significant ice storm gets underway.  It will occur in waves with the first wave affecting areas just northwest of us tonight.

This is a perfect set-up for a big ice storm & big Ohio Valley flood!  These events often go hand-in-hand.

So, what does this all mean for us?  First, I will just start with the 7-day forecast to show you the swings ahead with a 45-degree drop in 12 hours from 60 to 15!

Now on to the details...................

There is the long-duration damaging ice storm west & northwest of our area now to Thursday:

Glaze ice accumulations really mount up Michigan to far northern Texas Panhandle.

Here, as rainfall arrives late this evening-tonight, a brief period of freezing rain is possible north of US 24 before it quickly goes to just rain.

Temperatures will be on the rise tonight from 32-37 to 39-50 by early Wednesday morning.

With the rainfall tonight, I cannot rule out a few isolated embedded t'storms.  One or two may even have some pea-sized hail in it.

Watch for areas of dense fog given the lack of wind & the warm moist air with the rain riding over the still-cold ground.

The rain may lull Wednesday late morning-early afternoon Wednesday with just dense fog.

Rain will return late afternoon & last right into the evening & night.  An isolated rumble of thunder is possible. 

After highs 44-53, temperatures may rise to 48-56 by early Thursday morning.

Showers & storms are likely early to late Thursday morning with isolated severe storm or two possible.  The threat is hail that may reach 1-1.50" in diameter.  A couple other storms may produce smaller hail.

In the afternoon, showers & storms are still possible, but the squall line with severe risk (wind mainly) should stay south of our area.

Highs should reach 53-62 over the area.

Areas of flash flooding are likely from the rainfall intensity.  Watch for rapid rises in creeks, streams & rivers & large areas of ponding in yards & in fields that may overspill to roadways.  A few roads in the viewing area may be barricaded.


The bulk of the heavier rainfall & storms will exit by Thursday evening.  The cold front will pass after a lull in the rain.  This front will likely have a line of gusty showers with it, which may briefly end as a very rapid change-over to sleet & snow.

1-2.5" of rainfall is likely viewing area-wide tonight to Thursday. 

Temperatures will absolutely tank Thursday night 40-50 degrees with howling northwest winds up to 35 mph.

Greater Lafayette will drop from 60 to 15 in 12 hours from 7 p.m. to 7 a.m.

Highs Friday, despite sunshine, will only run 15-21.  Winds will be gusty from the northwest to 33 mph.  Wind chills will drop to as low as -10 degrees.

Saturday looks bright, but cold. 

Clipper with snowfall is possible late Sunday-Sunday night to perhaps early Monday morning.  Snow may change to some mix before ending.

At this point, it looks like 1-3" of snow is possible. 

Two more rounds of snow are possible next week.

Colder-than-normal weather pattern will continue right through February.

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