Highs today varied 21-32 over the area.
Wave of snow is likely Saturday evening-night. Heaviest should fall 8 p.m.-1 a.m. & then taper off.
1-3" is expected.
Northwest winds will pick up Saturday night to Sunday morning with gusts to 35 mph at times. This will blow & drift snow around given the lighter, dry nature of the snow.
Highs will run 22-29 with lows -4 to 4 by Sunday morning with wind chills near -25 to -14.
Snow is likely Monday afternoon-Monday night. The heaviest currently looks to fall in the 5 p.m. to 10 p.m. time frame before tapering off.
1-3" looks possible.
Northwest winds gusting to 30 mph may lead to blowing & drifting snow Monday evening-night.
The snow will be wetter than Saturday with highs 27-32.
Storm system looks to stay south of us Wednesday, but snowfall could occur from southeastern Kasnas to southern Missouri to soutehrn Indiana, Ohio & the Northeast. Icing to an ice storm could occur from northern Texas to Massachusetts.
A bigger system could actually bring snow in here by Thursday-Thursday night with icing to an ice storm from northern Texast to Kentucky to New England.
Given the two periods of extended icing, it could be locally quite damaging from Texas to New England.
Another shot of bitter cold should follow this storm with strong northwest winds to 35-45 mph, leading to widespread blowing & drifting snow & low wind chills Friday.
The only reason I kept Thursday at 40% for snow is that I just don't know the exact magnitude yet.
Longer range data suggests extreme, record, historic cold in mid-February, but I don't want to ride the model train or the model lava lamp with other variable at play. A major Arctic outbreak was shown in the model data in January, as well & that did not transpire.
Let's wait this out. I need more evidence. It certainly looks below normal to February 19 overall with snow & ice opportunities given this SSW, but I want to pump the breaks on any hype toward extreme, historic cold with all-time February low temperature records in jeopardy. That seems a bit overzealous in the model data trends.
I am looking toward rain & much warmer weather after February 20.