SEVERE WX : Excessive Heat Warning View Alerts

February 3, 10:30 PM Weather Forecast: Ice Jams & Very Active Weather Pattern Underway

Ice jams are causing flooding & big flooding rainfall & ice storm event nearby late week.

Posted: Feb 3, 2019 8:57 PM
Updated: Feb 3, 2019 11:45 PM

ICE JAMS & FLOODING.........

Sudden Rises Have Occurred Due to Ice Jams As Snow Melts & Thaw Continue to Put Run-Off Into Rivers & Streams......

Between 5:30 & 6:45 p.m., the Wabash River at the US 136 Covington gauge has shot up nearly 10 FEET due to an ice jam.  Water is backing up & causing Moderate flooding.  It may still be rising & backing up.  Be aware if you have river cabins in the area.  Also, jams may cause streams that empty into the Wabash in this area to back up.

North 9th St. between Prophet St. & Burnetts Road has been closed due to flooding, according to the Tippecanoe County Sheriff's Office.

Ice jam on the Wildcat at Lafayette is causing sudden, rapid rise.  From 5:45 to 7:15 p.m., the water level at the gauge went up nearly 3 feet in 3 hours.  It may still be rising.  Be aware in the Barton Beach area overnight to tomorrow for sudden flooding.

Smaller creeks & streams may be flooding that NWS does not have gauges for.  Be aware if you live near creaks & streams loaded with ice as run off from melting snow & thawing continues.

Also, ice jams on the Kankakee River are causing minor flooding in northern Newton County.  Flooding Warning is up for the Kankankee in Newton County the Jasper County line & westward.

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THE FLASH THAW.........

Parts of the area have shot up 75 degrees from our low Thursday morning to our high today!

Minimum temperatures January 30-31:

Minimum wind chills January 30-31:

Highs today:

59 4 ESE Crawfordsville

59 4 SE New Market (Montgomery Co.)

58 Frankfort Municipal Airport

57 1 ESE Frankfort

57 1 SE Mulberry

57 3 S Rossville

56 6 NW Crawfordsville

56 4 SE Linden

56 4 SW West Point

56 I-65/Indiana 28 (Frankfort)

56 Grissom ARB

56 Crawfordsville Muncipal Airport

56 5 NE Michigantown

56 2 ENE Burlington

55 1 S Beard (Clinton Co.)

55 WLFI

55 Purdue Airport

55 Covington

55 Kokomo Municipal Airport

55 1 SSW Galveston

55 Deacon (Cass Co.)

54 4 SE Pine Village

54 Attica

54 Fowler

54 4 NW Pence (Warren Co.)

54 2 SE Brookston

54 Peru Municipal Airport

54 Rochester-Fulton County Airport

54 Twelve Mile (Cass Co.)

53 2 SW Amboy (Miami Co.)

53 White County Airport

52 Flora Municipal Airport

52 Logansport-Cass County Airport

52 4 NE Monon

51 Kentland Municipal Airport

51 Round Grove

51 4 NW Rochester

50 I-65/US 24 (Remington)

50 I-65/Iroquois River (Rensselaer)

50 Jasper County Airport

50 6 WNW Kentland

50 6 SW Chalmers

50 2 N Rensselaer

50 9 SE Roselawn

49 Winamac

48 4 NW Boswell

48 8 NE Rensselaer

48 7 SW Brook

48 9 NW Morocco

47 6 SW Demotte

46 Enos (Newton Co.)

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FOG, ICE JAMS, WARMER, RAINY & WINDY.............

After Some Areas of Dense Fog, Rainy Weather with Wind Will Occur With Continued Risk of Ice Jams & Associated Flooding......

Areas of dense fog are possible off & on tonight into tomorrow morning with fluctuations in visibility.  At times it may drop to 0.25 mile.

Rain showers are likely tomorrow with gusty winds from the southwest of 15-30 mph.  They will move in tomorrow morning from west to east after 7 a.m.  Highs of 53-60 are likely.

They should end by 7 p.m. Wednesday evening, but some patchy drizzle may linger longer.  This drizzle may change to some patchy light freezing drizzle 10 p.m.-4 a.m. as temperatures drop to 30-32.  Any icing will be minimal, but a slick spot or two is possible early Tuesday morning.

A total of 0.15-0.40" of rainfall is likely from this system.

COLDER, RAIN & ICING........

Parts of the Viewing Area Will See a Period of Accumulating Glaze Ice Tuesday Night........

Tuesday looks mostly cloudy with highs in the 30s (to around 40 in the south).

6 p.m. Tuesday to 6 a.m. Wednesday will feature widespread precipitation event over the area.

Temperatures will drop to 29-34, then rise to 34-37 late.

Rain may begin briefly as freezing rain along & north of Indiana 26 to U.S. 24.  However, a more prolonged freezing rain episode north of U.S. 24 may result in ice glaze accumulations.  The heaviest icing looks to be in the far north.

Check out the extensive icing event northwest & west of our area with ice storm possible northern Missouri to northern Illinois & heavy sleet accumulations form Iowa to southern Wisconsin.

Ice glaze accumulations of Ice Storm Warning status may be reached west & northwest of our area Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning.

Such icing will not occur in our viewing area, but up to 0.10" of ice may accrete on trees, powerlines, elevated surfaces, cars, etc. in Newton, Jasper, Pulaski & Fulton counties with lesser amounts southward.

However, despite the icing accumulations, even the far north will see a changeover to just plain cold rain before ending early Wednesday morning.

A Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain could be issued for Newton, Jasper, Pulaski & Fulton counties for Tuesday night-very early Wednesday morning from NWS.  That would not surprise me.

GOOD SET-UP FOR A BIG FLOODING EVENT ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN INDIANA & KENTUCKY WITH ICE STORM FARTHER NORTHWARD.............EXCEPT ONE INGREDIENT MISSING FOR ICE STORM IN OUR AREA.........

The Coldest Air Bleeding In & Undercutting the Warm, Moist Air to the South Is Not Quite In Tandem For An Ice Storm Here, But It is Close & Wouldn't Take Much to Change Things Quickly..........It Is Heavy Precipitation (Substantial Rainfall) Here Regardless.........

After Tuesday night, a very strong Arctic high with brutally cold air will move south & become centered over the Dakotas.  Bitterly cold air will bleed southward to Kansas, Missouri & Iowa.

The big question is how far southeast the Arctic air get in Indiana.  Last week, it looked like it would get to about I-70, keeping us in highs in the teens & 20s late this week with 40s to 50s in the southern part of the state.

At the same time, it looked as if heavy precipitation would move north as warm, moist air would be lifted up & over the front, resulting in extensive icing potential Kansas to our area to northwestern Ohio.  It looked like a Bermuda-type high off of the Southeast Coast (keeping Florida at 80-85 & 80-82 in southeastern Georgia) would prevent the front from surging too far to the south.

Right now...............

It appears that the front may try to reach our area, stall just near the Kankakee River, then shoot back to the north.  It is a result of that Bermuda-type high that will keep southern Indiana in the mid 60s (for highs) for up to four days this upcoming week & widespread 70s in the South & 80s in the Deep South to Florida.  It is also a result of the bitter-cold Arctic high not making it far enough east & southeast enough to bleed the cold, cold air in at the right angle to put us in mostly freezing rain.

This may keep the brutal cold from the Dakotas to Iowa to Kansas, then southward to Texas & Mexico with the unusually cold weather while we get all of the precipitation.  Highs may only reach the 50s at Brownsville, Texas & northeastern Mexico later this week as that cold air roars southward.

The cold at that trajectory looks to come in BEHIND the system for us or on the BACK EDGE & westward on the system.  This would mean that much of the cold will arrive at the very end or after this heavy precipitation event.

So..................

I went with period of freezing rain north, then all rain for everyone else Wednesday-Wednesday night, then all rain for EVERYONE Thursday, then potential of it ending as ice & some snow Thursday evening-night.

If the cold air can surge farther southward or get in here sooner, this forecast could change, but this is the best idea of what will transpire based on the data in front of me.

The threat of some flooding will exist in low-lying areas.  Creeks & streams will rise rapidly & may overflow & the Wabash will likely rise above flood stage late week to next weekend. 1-1.50" of rainfall is expected here Wednesday-Thursday.

The risk of substantial flooding will occur Arkansas to southern Indiana & Kentucky with 3-6" of rainfall expected.

Note our 1-1.50" rainfall & the serious 3-6" rainfall event setting up farther south.

Again, analoging the big ice storms we have had since the 1870s, this set-up is very similar to get heavy, flooding rainfall south of us with some flooding rainfall here............with usually an ice storm here in our area.

Note the surface maps fo the top 10 worst ice storms in our area back to 1850:

https://www.wlfi.com/content/news/Local-Weather-History--The-Top-10-Worst-Ice-Storms-In-the-Viewing-Areas-History-501462961.html

However, again, the cold undercutting is just displaced to the northwest a bit to prevent this from going to an ice storm for us.  The deep moisture just outruns the Arctic blast.

Arctic air will follow this system with temperatures well-below normal (but not like we just had).  Opportunities for snow will likely return next week & the week after with below normal temperatures dominating.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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