February 3, 10:30 PM: Weather Forecast Update On Upcoming Rainfall Totals & Isolated Thunder & Lightning

Ice storm (1" of glaze possible) northwest of our area & significant flooding episode (3-7" rain) south of our area is expected, but we could see 1-2" of rainfall.

Posted: Feb 4, 2019 9:40 PM
Updated: Feb 4, 2019 10:23 PM

Temperatures are already cooling to 32 in our western areas & the freezing line will continue to work eastward, catching up to some of the lingering drizzle behind the cold front.  So, some brief light freezing drizzle is possible before ending tonight.  Any icing would be extremely light.  Fog is being mixed out of the area as the front passes.

After brief sun, it will cloud back over with rainfall Tuesday evening-night to Wednesday morning.  It may begin as a period of freezing rain, mainly along & north of U.S. 24 before changing back over the rain.  Along & north of U.S. 24, brief light ice accumulations are possible at less than 0.1".

Highs Tuesday should run 35-41.

Some isolated thunder & lightning is possible as warm unstable air is lifting up & over warm front & wedged underneath some cold air aloft.  A thunder clap/flash of lightning is even possible at the onset with the freezing rain in the north!

It was 77 today at at West Plains, Missouri (southern Missouri), 80 at Russellville, Arkansas & 77 at Little Rock, Arkansas with dew points in the 50s & 60s.  That is the kind of warm, unstable air that will get thrust up & over the cooler, stable airmass at the surface.

By Wednesday morning, 0.40-0.90" of rainfall is likely for the area.

Count on areas of dense fog tomorrow night, Wednesday & into Wednesday night.

Our rain may subside a bit Wednesday late morning-midday, then pick back up again Wednesday late afternoon to Wednesday night, then last periodically right through Thursday.

By the time the rainfall ends Thursday evening, widespread 1-2" are likely with some isolated +2" amounts (this would be total Tuesday-Thursday rainfall).

The rain may end as a brief period of freezing rain, sleet & snow before ending Thursday evening.

After mild 40s & 50s, we should tank to teens Thursday night.

Note the long-duration ice storm west & northwest of our area.

Note the band of up to 1" of glaze ice (not including sleet, which will occur in a zone just northwest of the glaze ice).

It should turn much colder Friday-Sunday.  Wind chills may drop to as low as -10 Friday night in parts of the viewing area.

We just might make it 5 of 6 weekends with accumulating snowfall.

Snow is possible Sunday PM with minor accumulation.  At this point, it looks like 1-3" looks possible.

Additional snowfall is possible mid to late next week with accumulation.

Additional snowfall could also occur around the 16-17th before changing to mix & rain, then ending as snow.

There is more bitterly cold Arctic air ahead!  I do not think the wind chills will be as cold as we had in the last event & we may see lows of -16 to -9 rather than -23 to -15.

It will still be rough.  Winter is far from over.

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