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February 29, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest....

Posted: Feb 29, 2020 10:57 AM
Updated: Feb 29, 2020 12:17 PM

Lows this morning ran 4-18.  Much of the area was 8-13.  The warmest was Rochester-Fulton County Airport at 18 (often milder at night due to moderating effect of Lake Manitou, which is right adjacent to the airport).

The coldest was 

Earl Park & Fowler dropped to 5.  Remington tanked to 4.  

Today will be mostly sunny to sunny with highs in the 30s with a west breeze, followed by lows in the 20s, then rising tonight (to 31-35) with wind turning to the south-southwest & increasing to 15-30 mph.

It will feel cold in the morning hours of tomorrow with temperatures still in the 30s & 40s with that strong wind.  Wind chills will be in the 20s to around 30.

Clouds will increase Sunday with highs 52-57 with south-southwest winds 20-35 mph (isolated gust to 40 mph) making it feel cooler.

Rainy weather in the area is likely Sunday night-Monday, however rain will be tapering northwest to southeast with time Monday afternoon-evening.

After 45-50 Monday night, we will likely see 46-54 Monday, then temperatures fall in the afternoon & evening to the 30s & 40s with wind turning to the northeast as front slides southward a bit.

With front stalling south of our area Monday night-Tuesday morning & northeast to north, then north-northwest winds in our area, we should drop to 30-35 for lows.

With that, some patchy freezing drizzle & drizzle are possible.

Potential is there for slick spots along & north of Indiana 18.

Rain is possible closer to the front in our southern counties.

Some rain is possible Tuesday, with best coverage in the south.  Highs will run in the 40s to 50.

Any linger rain should exit early Wednesday with 40s to 50.

I see two changes:

1.  Heavier rainfall continuing to set farther & farther south.

2.  Much colder air delayed with passage of second cold front later Thursday.

So, the rain......0.30-0.80" for area......

If this trend continues with heavier rainfall sinking southeastward, it will be even less.

The 1-2" rains are setting up over southern Indiana.

Northern Mississippi, Alabama to eastern Tennessee will likely see the +6" amounts.

Thursday...........

I increased the highs from 36-41 to 40s to lower 50s.

Highs Friday should be in the 30s to 40s.

As we get to near/around March 10, temperatures should surge to the 60s.

Daffodils will shoot way up & Snowdrops will be in peak blossom.  A few crocus may bloom. Silver Maples & some Red Maples will burst into bloom quickly, as they are already very swollen.

Western Chorus frogs may begin to emerge from hibernation & begin to call.

Rain even some isolated t'storms may train from Texas to New York.

Heaviest rainfall is setting up south of our area, but we may still see 1-2".

Severe weather risk is possible Texas & eastern Oklahoma to southern Illinois, Indiana & Kentucky.

Risk is higher & more widespread Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas & Missouri, while it looks more isolated with northeastward extent.  Risk looks ENHANCED with tornado risk given high helicity values with the surface CAPE Texas to Missouri.

Much colder weather should follow with risk of a random, brief wet snowfall. Temperatures may drop +20 degrees below normal.

Timing of this possible snowfall is trending near March 15.

It is possible that a record cold morning proceeds it with lows in the single digits if we lay down a good snowpack.

Then, eyes are on the big California storm with flooding, potential MARGINAL RISK of severe weather there & how it will drive very cold, deep upper trough into the West. A Rockies to Northern Plains blizzard is possible.

Here, a period of impressive warmth is possible with some days in the 70s toward latter March. A couple nights may see overnight low not dropping below 60.

With this storm system & the warmth, there will likely be severe weather from the Plains to the Southeast & even parts of the Midwest & Ohio Valley.

Worst of it shows up Texas to Kansas, at the moment.

As the system comes through our area, heavy rainfall is possible here (with some of that afformentioned severe risk).

We will monitor.

Temperatures will go way above normal, but note the well-below normal temperatures behind strong storm system.

The Spring Peeper frogs will get in on calling for multiple days during this time.

70s with a couple night not even dropping below 60 are possible.

A period of heavy rainfall is possible.

Much colder weather will follow with temperatures +20 degrees below normal.

Could this cold snap bring a random, late season snow at the end of March?

I wouldn't rule it out, but it wouldn't last long!

The start of April looks colder than normal.

However, as warmth re-builds in the Plains, this sets the stage for a big warm-up with 70s & lows in the 60 to 60s range after April 6.

Showers & t'storms will also return.

Lafayette
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 70° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 68°
Kokomo
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 65°
Rensselaer
Partly Cloudy
64° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 64°
Lafayette
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 67° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 68°
Danville
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 65°
Frankfort
Clear
64° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 64°
Frankfort
Clear
64° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 64°
Monticello
Clear
65° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 65°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
65° wxIcon
Hi: 70° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 65°
Logansport
Clear
64° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 64°
Warmest weather since early November.
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