FOCUS ON THE TWO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALLS OVER THE NEXT WEEK..............
Highs today were a good 10 degrees below normal. They should be around 42-46 as we are just hours from the start of March.
Focus is on the snowfall Sunday & Sunday night with strong, gusty winds after decent, but cold Friday & Saturday.
Note how even the shorter-range NAM 3km is keeping that heaviest snow south of our area still.
1-3" still looks good for us.............heaviest north, lightest north by Monday morning.
+6" is likely southwest, south & southeast of our area.
We will continue to monitor to see if band shifts any, but this 1-3" thinking continues to hold.
Northeast to north, then northwest winds may gust 25-35 mph Sunday-Sunday night resulting in blowing & drifting snow.
Near/record cold is likely Sunday night-Wednesday with highs teens to 20s & lows -5 to 3. Wind chills Monday morning may run -22 to -10.
Snow is likely Thursday-Friday. It may change to freezing drizzle & drizzle Friday before tapering to light snow then ending.
OVERALL NOW TO START OF APRIL..................
Below to well below normal temperatures with opportunities for snow & ice should dominate now to near March 20.
Then, I think it will be like a light switch coming on. It could go to full spring mode in a big hurry with 60s & 70s. We may very well peak with a 76-80 day or two.
Severe weather could occur Minnesota to Texas with blizzard in the Rockies & High Plains in the warmth & there is still potential for us to get some leftovers of the severe weather.
I do think that we may see a brief, cold wave after the storms in late March. I do not think it will last long, but we may find a day or two with temperatures 20 degrees below normal (highs in the 30s with hard freezing) after 70s to even 80.
However, we should bounce back very quickly & I think the start of April could feature another surge of 70s to 80.
Overall, March should end up colder & drier than normal, however. It will likely rank in the top 10 coldest on record, possibly the top 5.
It will feel like the middle of winter for a good +15 days, but it will feel completely different in about 20 days! Grass will green quickly, daffodils & crocuses will shoot up very quickly & we should see a rapid blooming of the Silver & Red Maples, American Elms & Flowering Quince.
This is based on an analog blend of similar years of SSTs, MJO sequences in the winter, similar patterns in the Northern & Southern Hemisphere, PNA, PDO, TNH, the interesting wobbly El Nino Modoki (acting like a La Nina at times) set-up & the continued incidence of low solar winter-early spring. I am also basing it on what may transpire over the next few months with the indices mentioned & comparing those years.
EARLY APRIL-EARLY MAY............
The first 4 days of April look to turn rainy & stormy (severe?), but warm (70s to 80) as upper trough digs eastward. It really does not look too cold until a cold spell April 9-15 with some frost & freezing & many days with highs in the 50s. There will also be rain events mixed in.
Latter April looks warm with perhaps mid 80s April 27-30 (record warmth?). Analog back to 1880 supports this notion. After wet weather to April 23, it looks quite dry after that until early May.
Overall, April should end up warmer than normal with normal precipitation.