February 28, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

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Posted: Feb 28, 2020 3:36 PM
Updated: Feb 28, 2020 6:31 PM

With training snow showers overnight, up to 2.5" fell along I-70 from far eastern Indiana to central Ohio.

Again today, heaviest snowfall is southwest, south & southeast of our area with a couple narrow corridors of 1-2" likely.

Here, local accumulations on trees & grass have occurred today of up to 0.5" in our southwestern half.  We have received a grassy & tree trunk & branch dusting amounting to a trace.  Roads are damp to wet, however here at West Lafayette.

Some snow showers are possible in the southwest into the evening with just a few flurries & spots of light snow elsewhere.

Clearing will ensue with time.

Tonight, with a sky turning clear to mostly clear.  Lows of 0-13 are likely.

They will be variable as pockets will drop to 0-7, while other spots may see 8-13.

A breeze from the west to west-northwest will keep numbers from dropping to widespread 0 to slightly below 0.

However, wind chills tonight may drop to -6 to 7.

We will see a lot of frost, but this breeze will prevent much substantial freezing fog.  Some light freezing fog & haze is possible.

Saturday looks mostly sunny to sunny with highs 34-39.

The wind will increase tomorrow night.  The clouds will increase late.

Temperatures may drop to 21-28 in the evening, then rise to 30-36 by early Sunday morning.

It will cloud up Sunday with late highs of 52-56 expected.

The strong south-southwest winds gusting +30 mph will make it feel colder, however.

Multiple waves of rain (with lulling & dry time in-between) are likely Sunday night-Wednesday morning.

Highs will run in the 50s Monday, but I lowered Tuesday & Wednesday highs into the 40s due to front dropping south a bit.

It will be cold enough north of the front toward far northern Illinois & Indiana for some wet snow.

It appears that the best potential of 1-2" of total rainfall will occur in the southeast half of the viewing area with a bit less totals as you go northwestward.

Flooding rainfall is likely from New England to Texas with the heaviest of the rainfall Kentucky to Tennessee.

Severe weather will also occur in the Lower Mississippi Valley & likely as far east as Georgia with time.

A corridor of ENHANCED RISK still seems possible, given the parameters.

Some MARGINAL RISK may reach as far north as the Lower Ohio Valley.

Colder weather arrives Thursday-Friday with a few isolated rain/snow showers at times.

A brief burp of spring is still possible around March 10 with risk of heavy 1-2.5" rainfall, some t'storms & highs in the 60s.

Daffodils will shoot way up & Snowdrops will blossom.  Silver Maples will burst into bloom quickly, as they are already very swollen.

Western Chorus frogs may begin to emerge from hibernation & begin to call:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hzePgnIpUuk

Some MARGINAL RISK of severe weather could reach as far north as Missouri & parts of Illinois.

SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK parameters show up in the South.

Much colder weather should follow with risk of a random, brief wet snowfall.  Temperatures may drop 20 degrees below normal.

Then, eyes are on the big California storm with flooding, potential MARGINAL RISK of severe weather there & how it will drive very cold, deep upper trough into the West.  A Rockies to Northern Plains blizzard is possible.

Here, a period of impressive warmth is possible with some days in the 70s toward latter March.  A couple nights may see overnight low not dropping below 60.

Big Plains severe weather outbreak could occur with some severe risk getting in here.  Reminds me in some respects to a big warm-up with Plains outbreak in mid-March 1990 or March 1992.

As the system comes through our area, heavy rainfall is possible here (with some of that afformentioned severe risk).

We will monitor.

Temperatures will go way above normal, but note the well-below normal temperatures behind strong storm system.

The Spring Peeper frogs will get in on calling for multiple days during this time:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhBsNqF7Hkk

The spring burp around March 10, combined with this significant spring surge later, means early plants will get budding & blooming.

Colder, freezing temperatures are likely this latter March warmth.

Temperatures may drop to 20 degrees below normal with even a few flurries.

Pretty cold weather will be with us as we end March & go into early April from the data available right now.

Hopefully our vegetation doesn't get too far advanced.  Based on the current GGD I calculate & how those affect different species, daffodils, crocus & Hyacinths will bloom & Star & Saucer Magnolias should begin to blossom.  Flowering Quince will be in blossom.  Forsynthia may blossom.

Red & Silver Maples will be in blossom.  Weeping Willows may green up.  Sugar Maple buds may swell, but I doubt budding or blossoming.

Tuliptree buds will likely pop open, but leaves will likely not unfurl alot.

Ohio Buckeye buds may swell & begin to open.

Serviceberry buds may swell & begin to crack.

Cool-season lawn grass like Kentucky bluegrass & fescue will green up & Henbit species may green up & begin to flower in their purple & magenta hues.  Chickweed species will begin growth & may begin to flower.  Some dandelions may appear.

Some Dutchman's Breeches & Spring Beauties may begin some emerge in the woods.

This advancing phenology will be more pronounced in the south than north.

Could this cold snap bring a random, late season snow?

I wouldn't rule it out, but it wouldn't last long!

The worry is that some of the first Tree Swallows may arrive in the warm spell & then cold & potential snow hit.

After this cold snap of hard freezes, note the warming in the Plains & western Corn Belt that will overspread our area by around April 5:

This sets the stage for a big warm-up with 70s & lows in the 60 to 60s range after April 6.

This warmth will push Sugar Maple towards some budding & Tuliptree buds to leaf unfurling a bit.  Eastern Redbuds will turn purple magenta.  Pin & Northern Red Oak bud swelling is likely.

First Mayapples will likely emerge with umbrella heads in the woods as our warming units continue to accumulate.

Spring 2020 (March-April-May) overall shows above normal rainfall.

There will be a lot of temperature fluctuation & a some greater severe weather risk compared to the last few springs, but the trend is for colder than normal mean temperatures in the western U.S. & warmer than normal mean temperatures in the eastern U.S.

Summer 2020 (June-July-August).....

CFSv2 model is below for overall summer mean temperature anomalies.

Blending in analog & the European model data, the best potential of below normal temperatures for summer is from the Northern Plains to California with core of it in the Rockies.

Best chance of above normal temperatures is from Eastern Canada to Texas with cores of it in Texas & over New England & eastern Canada.

In terms of Summer 2020 total rainfall, looks like it may be wet early, then get drier with time.

Thoughts are that below normal rainfall will begin to move in after July 10 with some intense heat.

Thinking developing hot Texas to Southeast ridge will expand north & northeastward.

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