February 28, 5:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on two rounds of accumulating snowfall, strong gusty winds & near/record cold.

Posted: Feb 28, 2019 4:07 PM
Updated: Mar 1, 2019 3:11 PM

Much of the precipitation is virga over the area (drying up before it hits the ground).  Some sleet &/or flurries may make it to the ground for a bit this evening

The load of the precipitation doesn't completely reach the ground & until you get to Bloomington, Indiana to northwest of Cincinnati, Ohio & southward.

After lots of sun, then increasing clouds Friday, a few flurries are possible Saturday morning, followed by some clearing.

Lots of clouds will return, however, Saturday evening.

Snow is likely Sunday-Sunday night with strong, gusty northeast winds of 25-35 mph.  Temperatures will be falling Sunday from the 20s to the teens with wind chills drop to the single digits by later in the day.

At this point, it still appears that the heaviest snowfall will occur southwest, south & southeast of our area with +6" amounts.

Here, 1-3" still looks good with highest amounts in the southern part of the area.

We will continue to monitor the band of heaviest snow south of our area to see if it shows a tendency to shift northward.

February 11, 1982 is the strongest analog match for this system at this time.

Analogs show the overwhelming cold in early March & lack of any sort of above normal temperatures for the country.  The 1-2 above normal in the West may be generous.

This graphic shows start of month to around March 8 mean temperature anomalies (amount below normal when the high & lows are added & divided by the days).

You have to go back to 1978 or 1960 to find such a cold wave.

March 4-10, 1960:

March 4-10, 1978:

Lows may drop below zero to single digits Sunday, Monday & Tuesday nights with wind chills Sunday night -25 to -10.

A few snow flurries & snow showers are possible Tuesday as a shortwave pivots through.

Otherwise, focus is on Thursday to Friday for accumulating snowfall next week.

Potential there for snow, then some changeover to ice, before ending as snow.

It looks more like a clipper system with widespread, significant frontagenetical forcing north of a warm front to me.

Even with it being a clipper this forcing & snow duration will result in a band of +6" with it. 

Latest data suggests band of heaviest snow will line up in parts of the viewing area (mainly northwest half).

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Below normal temperatures & patches of frost in the north & northeast.
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