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February 27, 1:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the cold now, then warmer & wetter weather.

Posted: Feb 27, 2020 12:14 PM
Updated: Feb 27, 2020 4:38 PM

Snowfall totals varied from 2-6.5" in the February 25-26.  The February sun angle has been doing its part despite colder weather.  Part of it melted yesterday & today.

I measured 3.1" for a total, but our snow depth yesterday evening & this morning was 2.4".  It is 1.8" now.

Thank you to all area CoCo & NWS COOP observers, as well as all NWS & WLFI storm spotters!  These reports are greatly appreciated.  I could not make a map & build a picture of the event without the reports from your backyard.

From Jim in Kentland with 3.3" to Mary Anne in Remington with 3", Kandy in Chalmers with 3" to Marty in Otterbein with 3.1", Venus in the Horseshoe Bend area with 5.5" to Layla in Kewanna, 3.8" from Sheila in Wolcott, Tim near Veedersburg to 2" from Randy in Frankfort & the 6.5" from Jerry northeast of Rochester.............thank you all!  I know I failed to mention some names, but those are off the top of my head at the moment.

We have had some snow showers & flurries in our northeast & far southern areas today.

Now, a few spotty flurries & snow showers & coming in from the northwest.

Coverage will run only around 25-30% today with clouds & some sun mixed as shortwave skims by our area.

Local dustings or light coatings of snow are possible.

It will continue to be blustery from the west to west-northwest with winds 15-30 mph.

Farther south, later today & into this evening, snow showers will tend to be heavier.

A narrow corridor of 0.7-2" of snow is possible from parts of southern Indiana to northern Kentucky & southern Ohio in a rather short period of time.

Alberta Clipper will pivot southeastward & bring some snow showers to our area tomorrow morning-midday.

Heaviest snowfall with it looks to be south of our area.  However, if it tracks only a bit more to the north, even 30 miles, then we may see more than just localized less than 0.5" amounts.  It may be a narrow corridor of 1-2".

I just went for a generic 30% coverage of snow showers to the forecast.

We will monitor closely.

Friday night, as skies clear & winds go calm, I went for a low near 10.  There an opportunity for some spots to absolutely tank to -1 to 7.  This may result in variability of lows from near -1 to 12.

Heavy frost & some freezing fog may develop.

Warm front will move northward, then stall near or atop our area Sunday night.

With this, multiple waves of rain (with several surface lows) will ride along the front over a 48-hour period with some lulls in-between.

The contrast will be rather sharp with 40s in central Illinois & temperatures as high as 71 at St. Louis.

We will see 50-59 over the area, but 60s to lower 70s are possible far southern Indiana to Kentucky.

Front should move back south of our area Wednesday as stronger surface low sweeps through area.

With this front & the multipe surface lows, a flooding event is looking likely from Pennsylvania to northeastern Texas.

Parts of Kentucky, Tennessee & northeastern Arkansas may see +7" of rainfall.  Serious, potentially significant, flash flooding situation will transition to longer-duration river flooding situation.

Here, this model is less aggressive with rainfall, but I still think 1-2" is a good bet with all of the other data before me.

Severe weather event is likely over the Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday PM-Wednesday.

Some risk could develop as far north as far southern Indiana with a likely upgrade to ENHANCED RISK in the Lower Mississippi Valley in coming SPC outlooks.

SPC outlook for the Tuesday-Wednesday period:

Should turn much colder late next week with temperatures dropping below normal again. 

There may be a spring burp again around March 10, then colder weather with temperatures below normal with even some snow.

A storm to watch is one that is projected to be moisture-laden & move out of Texas & Louisiana to Mississippi, then northeastward to Kentucky & then western New York.

Track & our temperatures will be critical, but with potential of lower 30s here with that track would mean snowfall.

If it occurs, it will not last long, however.

Down the road, it is this massive California system that is the big weather-maker.

It will likely bring high winds, flooding, major mountain snowfall & even isolated severe weather with some tornado risk to California.

This will drop very deep upper trough into the West, but will mean massive upper ridge developing in the East.

This could bring a blizzard to the West & Northern Plains & the first severe weather outbreak of Spring 2020 to the Plains.

It is projected to bring a surge of significant warmth for a time in latter March.

Data suggests a couple of nights where the temperature doesn't even drop below 60 & a 2-3 of days of 70s!  The 80-degree line could make it as far north as St. Louis, Missouri , Evansville, Indiana & Louisville, Kentucky to Charleston & Huntington, West Virgina to Pennsylvania.  The 70-degree line could eventually make it as far north as New Hampshire & Maine.

A sudden tree & plant bud-out (earlier budding & blooming species) will get underway & the daffodils will surge big-time toward blossoming.  The grass should begin to green nicely, as well.

We may not only have severe weather risk, but also flooding risk as we transition from this warm spell to freezing weather again.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
47° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 40°
Kokomo
Few Clouds
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 36°
Rensselaer
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 34°
Fowler
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 34°
Williamsport
Clear
45° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 36°
Crawfordsville
Clear
44° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 36°
Frankfort
Clear
47° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 40°
Delphi
Clear
44° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 36°
Monticello
Clear
44° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 36°
Logansport
Clear
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 37°
A much cooler day with strong winds and some late-day showers.
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