The pattern showing up is much, much more of what I expected in late February through March after an expected rough patch of potential ice storm, a snowstorm & cold in mid-February (with tie or exceedance of coldest of the winter). I did think early February would be warm & wet before that cold, ice & snow risk, however.
Wabash River is expected to exceed flood stage now per NWS hydrologist forecasts.
The National Weather Service in Indianapolis has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Wabash River at Lafayette.
* From this afternoon to Wednesday afternoon.
* At 5:30 AM EST Saturday the stage was 10.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage late
this afternoon to a crest of 12.1 feet Monday evening. It will
then fall below flood stage early Wednesday morning.
* Impact...At 12.0 feet, High water affects a few low river cabins
and county roads.
Thoughts are that Wabash will also exceed Flood stage in southwestern Fountain County, though Flood Warning has not been issued yet.
After clearing trend for chunk of area & 52-62 today, lows tonight will only drop to 45-53 with showers developing. A couple isolated t'showers are possible. Showers will taper by noon Sunday.
Some fog is possible Sunday morning.
Some partial sun is possible at times Sunday midday-afternoon.
Cold front will then pass early to mid-afternoon & temperatures will begin to fall with wind shift to northwest.
Temperatures will fall from highs of 52-63 from northwest to southeast.
0.15-0.65" rainfall is expected from northwest to southeast.
We will monitor to see if any showers or t'showers can form on the actual cold front midday to afternoon. It is not completely out of the question, but for now there isn't enough evidence to add that to the forecast. We will monitor.
Torrential, flooding rainfall is expected over the southern parts of the state to Kentucky tonight-Sunday from heavy, training t'storms.
Band of +4" of rainfall is expected.
From deep snow & ice to severe weather & warmth........some severe weather risk will occur south of our area this evening-tonight-tomorrow morning with even the risk of a couple/few isolated tornadoes.
The trend is to shift much of the rainfall south of the area Tuesday & even Thursday-Friday, bringing flooding to the same areas over & over. That area would be northern Arkansas to southern Illinois & Indiana & Kentucky to southern Ohio, West Virginia & Maryland.
Another 1-3" of rainfall is possible in that same zone Tuesday & Thursday after the flooding rainfall of tonight-tomorrow.
Here, it appears Tuesday may end up dry & Thursday night-Friday showers look quite scattered with rainfall amounts less than 0.25". We will monitor.
Cold shot should be over the Northeast with some record cold possible in New England.
It sure looks like 70 to the 70s March 9-11 time frame followed by showers & storms!
CIPS analog shows severe weather risk probability really going up during this time, largely south & southwest of the area, but this will expand northeastward with time.
These are probabilities for at least 10 reports of severe weather within 110 km of a grid point:
March 14-15 looks very warm with 70s & showers/storms risk! The March 14-15 shows the highest potential of getting some severe weather risk in here. Parameters suggest MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK.
CIPS analog supports model analysis & my own analogs on early start to spring in the Midwest & East with warmth & cold in the West with active storm track in the middle with frequent bout of storms from eastern Oklahoma & Arkansas to the Midwest & Ohio Valleys.
These are analog probabilities of +3" of rainfall in the roughly March 9-12 time frame. Note the spots from southwestern Indiana & southeastern Illinois & then the South from Tennessee to the Gulf Coast.
Warm, spring weather will dominate in the first week of April with warmth in the Plains & eastward & cold weather in the West.
This is a good set-up for severe weather from the Mid & Lower Mississippi Valley to the Midwest & Ohio Valley, including our area.
An early-season 80 is possible here with even a couple nights with lows only in the 60 to 65 range..
Much warmer than normal here for mean temperature in early April:
It looks wetter than normal here as well.
The dryline should set up more from Kansas City to Tulsa than farther west due to drought penetrating eastward.
Droughty, hot weather will dominate the South as subtropical ridge leads to drier, very warm weather, which may extend as far north as Massachusetts & Maine.
Repeated rounds of showers & storms are possible in our region with warmth.
Vegetation should advance substantially late March to early April here (perhaps two weeks ahead of normal schedule).
This earlier-than-normal vegetation advancement makes us vulnerable to freeze damage, but like 2010 (one of the analog years), it does not look like a situation we had last year. Last year we had foliage & flowers on trees damaged or wiped out twice by near/record cold in April & early May.
The leaves on our tuliptree here at the house were completely wiped out & browned TWICE..... The tree was then set back & stressed to such a degree as to not see it reach full-foliation until late May. It took a lot of energy to re-foliate twice!
Wetter than normal here in early April:
We will likely get a cool-down right after April 10, but it does not look particularly damaging. However, frost & light freezing will be possible.
Warmth & wetness with severe weather risk should ramp up after that & last through late April to early May.
May should dry out by mid to late month overall with early arrival of summer heat.
Heat & dry weather will set in during June, setting the stage for a hot, dry summer. However, opportunities for a derecho, "Ring of Fire" MCSs & tropical moisture may give some relief from the drought if we play our cards right.
The first 100s in the area since 2012 are still expected.
Drier than normal weather & warmer than normal weather is expected through Fall overall (though tropics will be monitored for rainfall effects here).