February 26, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest...

Posted: Feb 26, 2020 9:31 PM
Updated: Feb 26, 2020 11:08 PM

Final snowfall totals will be out tomorrow morning, but the persistent snow has added up to 2-6" (from reports received) as of 9:15 p.m.

The highest totals seem to be running from north of Delphi to Rochester (band extends to Huntington County with amounts around 6" there) with a smaller area of higher totals noted in southeastern Miami to northeastern Howard to Grant counties. 

The highest totals in Indiana are north of Fort Wayne & Auburn with nearly 9" reported in Steuben County.

Roads are icing up with falling temperatures & new snowfall through this evening coating once just wet roadways.  Blowing & drifting continues to be an issue as well.  Most gusts have run 28-35 mph.  35 mph has been the max for measured gusts so far.

Snow showers & flurries will continue through tonight & early tomorrow morning with additional coatings & dustings of snow.

With a mix of clouds & some sun tomorrow, I'd have decided to keep a few flurries & spotty snow showers in the forecast.

There is some cold air aloft with a very minor shortwave pivoting through.

Any accumulation would be localized & amount to a dusting.

Highs will run in the 26-30 range with brisk northwest wind 15-28 mph, leading to blowing & drifting snow.

Model data doesn't show anything for tomorrow afternoon-evening, but I'd like put 25-30% POPs for flakes up.

Clipper will dive southeastward with a band of 1" to potentially 2" of snow south of our area.

I will still keep potential of some snow showers here, but these clippers are finicky with their track.  If it shifts north, it would bring a quick 1" to 2" possibly here.

Note the short wave with some snow showers behind it.  If that holds together & tracks through, it may bring a few snow showers in here Friday late afternoon-evening.

Regardless, Friday will feature lots of clouds with some sun for a while & blustery conditions.  Highs will run 26-30.

We could easily tank to single digits Friday night if skies completely clear soon enough.

Otherwise, change since 6 p.m. is earlier arrival of warmer weather & some sustained milder weather up to Wednesday of next week.

One thing stays the same:  risk of heavy rainfall Monday-Tuesday.

It will turn windy from the southwest Sunday, followed by periods of rain Sunday night to Tuesday.

The rainfall looks heaviest Tuesday.

Totals of 1-2" are possible atop saturated ground after the melting snowfall & all of the recent rainfall following a wet, wet January.

Risk of rivers, creeks & streams is elevated next week.

I think the model below is too light on the totals here (again 1-2") right now.

The worry is what may transpire in the Ohio & Tennessee Valley with another major rainfall event.  +5" band may evolve.

It appears we may cool off dramatically late next week with cold front passage Wednesday night.  Right now, the front looks largely dry, but we will monitor.

This is still days away, so we will tweak with time.

Highs may only run in the 30s Thursday & Friday of next week with lows in the teens & 20s.

So, when you add up all of the numbers the overall mean temperature averages below normal for our area now to around March 8.

It is definitely wetter than normal to around March 8.

There are two periods marked for warmth.

One is a random, brief literal 24- to 36-hour spring around March 10 with rain & a few t'storms.  Highs in the 60s could briefly occur.

The other is a potential big, longer-lasting surge of warmth in late March (most likely after March 20, but exact timing is unclear).

Between, it looks colder with possible a brief snowfall.

The late March warm spell could feature +70, but heavy rainfall & t'storms may be an issue.  We will be heavy rainfall-sensitive given antecedent wet soil conditions & chronically-high streams & rivers.

Again, it looks wetter than normal.

Wet pattern overall continues right into April.  The first 8 days of April show above normal precipitation.

Temperatures average above normal overall in the first 8 days of April, but note the unseasonably cold weather in the Rockies & northern Plains to western Corn Belt.

This colder weather may get in here around April 9-11 with freezing nights in the 20s & highs in the 40s.

So wet soils may turn into wet AND cold soils for growers & gardeners over the area.

March-April-May or Spring 2020 still looks wetter than normal overall.

March-April-May 2020 level out to temperatures colder in the West & warmer in the East (relative to normal).

Us being the buffer zone between the two combined with the above normal rainfall could signal a bit more active spring for severe weather compared to last year.

However, I think the 2021 & 2022 will be the springs to summers that have the biggest upticks in severe weather.  This corresponds with the upcoming La Nina that should peak in 2021.

Our biggest spring & fall outbreaks correspond with peak in strong, significant, traditional La Ninas.  La Ninas translate to East Africa drought, heat & famine, above to well-above normal rainfall over Australia & more drought & heat in the southern Plains of the U.S. to the Southeast.  Sometimes, the heat & drought move northward into our area in the summer season, depending on where exactly the core of coldest water sets up in the Equatorial Pacific.

At any rate, Spring 2020 projected temperature anomalies:

Summer still looks warmer than normal & drier than normal overall at this point, but we will continue to monitor.  It is unclear when the core of the dryness & most intense heat would occur.

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Turning Warmer & More Humid, Then Big Cool-Down
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