February 25, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update: Cold, Windy, Snowy Pattern Ahead with Near/Record Cold in March

January-like weather is ahead in early March with more wind ahead & wind chills of -30 to -20 possible.

Posted: Feb 25, 2019 4:43 PM
Updated: Feb 25, 2019 5:59 PM

Here are the measured gusts from properly-mounted wind sensors from around the area Sunday.  Sources are AWOS/ASOS, INDOT, WLFI stations & Mesonet.

Polar jet & subtropical jet will be separate from each other much of the week in the eastern U.S.  So, any precipitation here looks pretty light as deep moisture will remain south of our area.

A few patches of flurries & light snow are possible in the north Tuesday morning, followed by a few spotty sleet, freezing rain & rain showers here & there Wednesday morning, then a few lake effect flurries in the north later in the day.

A few more sleet, freezing rain & rain showers are possible Thursday morning.

All amounts look light.  Any slick spots would be few & far between based on the latest analysis.

A round of strong winds are possible Saturday.  If the accumulationg snowfall does come to fruition, much blowing & drifting could occur with gusts 35-45 mph from the north, then northwest.

Unusually cold air, with temperatures dropping to nearly 30 degree below normal, will blast in behind storm.  With the continued strong winds into Saturday night & Sunday morning, winds chills of -30 to -20 are possible.  This is quite a feat for March!

March 4-10 temperatures for the nation as a whole look the coldest for that period since 1960.  The mean temperature for our area currently looks to average 10-12 degree below normal for the period, a toss up between the coldest March 4-10 period since 1978 or 1960.

Early March 2014 was bad, but the duration was relatively short, though it still reached record cold levels.  2015 saw a brief burst of record cold, as well.  Such even remotely similar cold had not been seen like that in early March since 1996.

March 4-10, 1960 mean temperature anomalies:

March 4-10, 1978 mean temperature anomalies:

Unlike the past major cold waves of the winter, this cold wave will go deep into the South & result in damage to early foliating & blossoming vegetation.  20-25 lows are possible to southern Alabama.

This will pose a danger to the blueberry & peach crop in Georgia as these fruit crops are blossoming in the southern part of the state.

30s will drop to central Florida, something not seen since mid-January.  These could be the coldest temperatures of the entire winter at Orlanda & Tampa to Melbourne to Okeechobee (in March!).

Also, snow could fall to nearly the Gulf Coast in early March!

We have multiple opportunties for snow & ice in the viewing area March 1-19.  Given the pattern, I am still not ruling out a significant winter storm embedded in this 19-day period.

Check out that brutal cold for early March setting up next Monday morning!  Widespread record cold is likely from Iowa to Alberta with us near record cold with lows near 0.

The cold will roll on.  This is Friday March 8.

This is around March 12.

This is around St. Patrick's Day.

Cold will erode as we approach March 20.

I think it will be like lifting a light switch with sudden spring after March 20.  70s to even 80 are possible.

However, it may get violent from Minnesota to Texas with severe weather (even tornado outbreak) with a blizzard or two from New Mexico to the Dakotas.  Colorado & western Nebraska look to be hardest hit by blizzards during this time.  It is possible that some of the severe spreads to far western "Dixie Alley" over Arkansas, Louisiana & Mississippi.

I think warmer weather with this Plains severe & High Plains to Rockies snow & cold pattern could hold for a good week before a cool-down here.  I think one of these storms could mean a substantial blizzard for the Denver area & eastern Colorado in general.

In terms of severe weather here, it looks like a lot of it will stay west of us, but when the cold front comes through at the very end of March, we may get some severe weather.  This would occur as the main upper trough lifts from Texas to Missouri & Illinois to Michigan after multiple waves round the upper trough in the Rockies & Plains.

Article Comments

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Some scattered showers/storms Sunday morning, then drying & some clearing.
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