February 25, 3:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Snow & wind ahead...

Posted: Feb 25, 2020 3:13 PM
Updated: Feb 25, 2020 4:06 PM

Reason for Winter Storm Watch in our northeast quarter to third is due to potential of Winter Storm Warning issuance there.  This is where the heavier snowfall bands will tend to set up.

My gut is that the entire viewing area will end up with a Winter Weather Advisory except for possibly Fulton & Miami, but we will wait & see what the National Weather Service decides.

Elsewhere, it is Winter Weather Advisory currently.

Storm system metamorphosis is getting underway.

There are two surface lows right now.

However, we should see both combine into one main surface low.  This low will be deepening pretty quickly with a track from Arkansas to Ohio with strong cold front sweeping through with it.  Temperatures will drop up to 20 degrees below normal.

Current radar & clouds in the first two images, then model projection for around midday tomorrow in the third image:

So...............

TIMING OF CHANGE-OVER TO ALL SNOW:  7 p.m. to 2 a.m. over viewing area.

TIMING OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL:  9 a.m. to 1 p.m. tomorrow with up to 1" per hour at times.

TIMING OF END TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL:  5-8 P.M.

TIMING OF END TO ALL FLAKES (any lingering flurries & snow showers):  Thursday 7 a.m.-11 a.m.

SNOWFALL TOTALS:  3-8" (heaviest northeastern quarter to third of the viewing area)

WIND:  Gusts to 33 mph tonight & 40 mph tomorrow to tomorrow night.

TRAVEL IMPACTS:  Snow-covered & icy roadways with widespread blowing & drifting snow.

TEMPERATURES:  Dropping to 30-33 tonight & 27-30 by late afternoon tomorrow.

WIND CHILLS:  20-25 tonight & 15-20 tomorrow, then -7 to 8 tomorrow night.

This model run shows Alberta Clipper tracking farther north Thursday night-Friday morning with some minor accumulating snowfall.

It also shows another clipper or a shortwave pivoting in behind for Friday evening-night with snow showers & very minor local accumulations.

We will continue to monitor.

I kept snow possible for Thursday night-Friday morning & will wait & see if I need to add potential of snow showers for Friday evening-night.

It will warm up early next week.  However, rain & melting snowfall atop saturated ground & already high rivers may result in some minor river flooding & rises in creeks & streams.

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