SEVERE WX : Freeze Warning View Alerts

February 25, 1 PM Weather Forecast Update

Warmth & rainfall ahead....

Posted: Feb 25, 2021 11:49 AM
Updated: Feb 25, 2021 5:56 PM

THIS MORNING-TODAY:

Lows this morning ran 21-30 with the coldest temperatures in the north where some freezing fog occurred.  Visibility at the Jasper & White County Airports & Winamac dropped at or below 0.25 mile for a brief time.  The rest of the observations & reports from the area do not show freezing fog to such a degree.

As of 12:30 p.m., temperatures are 33-44 over the area with the coldest at Morocco & Winamac & the warmest at Covington. 

Skies are partly cloudy.

Highs should run 38-49 the rest of today, warmest in the southwest, coldest in the far north.  There will tend to be another sharp demarcation line between much warmer & colder in the clime zone change area just north of IN 18.

Looking for around 48 at Greater Lafayette, a rise from the projected 43 from yesterday.  Models have been under-doing temperatures over the past few days.

TONIGHT:

As for tonight, with clearing skies & a light to calm wind, lows of 18-25 are expected.

Areas of dense freezing fog are likely, but it looks the most widespread the most dense north of IN 18.  More widespread visibilities of 0.25 mile or less are expected there.  That is not to say some local pockets of similar visibility will not occur farther south, but it looks more widespread in the north of IN 18 zone.

Heavy frost & areas of black ice are likely.

Watch for the reduced visiblity & slick areas on roadways.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY MORNING:

This will burn off & mostly sunny skies by Friday late AM will become mostly cloudy to cloudy rapidly by evening.  Highs Friday should reach 43-55 north to southwest & around 51 at Greater Lafayette.

Scattered showers & drizzle are expected Friday night & Saturday morning.

Some patchy to areas of dense fog are possible, likely forming just south of the area or in the southern part of the area & moving northward with lows 37-45.

Rainfall amounts of 0.01-0.15" are expected Friday night-Saturday AM.

All of the measurable precipitation amounts you see in the model below from Missouri to Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota & northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan are actually the model reading dense fog.  This shows you the extent of the warm, moist air riding over the cold, snow-covered ground in that area.

The heaviest rainfall should stay south of the area through Saturday morning with up to 4" & some severe weather risk from southern Arkansas to northern Mississippi & northern Alabama.  Up to 6" of flooding rainfall is possible in parts of the mountains of North Carolina where orographic lifting will be maximized.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:

Once any showers pass Saturday, it looks dry for the rest of the day.

Low stratus cloud deck & some fog may linger over the northern & eastern half of the viewing area all day. However, there are signs that our southwestern areas may clear for sunshine!

Highs will vary greatly from 50 in the north to as high as 63 in the far southwest & 58 at Greater Lafayette.

Rainfall totals of 0.01-0.35" are expected Saturday night-Sunday AM from north to south.

Up to 1.50" of rainfall is possible over parts of southern Indiana to Ohio.

The big flooding rains will dominate well south of our area.

Highs Sunday will run 52-60, following by slow fall in temperatures in the afternoon as the wind goes from southerly to northeasterly & picks up.  We may fall back to 43-52 by late afternoon with mostly cloudy skies. 

This, after morning lows of just 41-52 north to south.

MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT:

We look cooler Monday with highs 38-46, followed by 39-46 Tuesday.  Tuesday night looks like a cold, frosty night with clearing, light winds & freezing fog.  Lows of 17-25 are expected as far southwest edge of much colder airmass over New England & the Mid-Atlantic just barely bleeds in a bit.

In terms of rainfall, a lot of it will will get locked up in that big flood event from Arkansas to West Virginia with up to 8" of rainfall.  Even as far north as the Ohio River & even into southern Missouri & Kansas, up to 2" of rainfall is possible.

If we can get more of that deeper moisture northward, we will have more rain Monday-Tuesday, but it appears that the surface high over Quebec with exude influence, shifting much of the rain south of the area.

I did go ahead & keep the risk of a couple of showers sneaking into our south Monday (25%) & then put 40% showers Tuesday, but we will monitor for future forecast tweaks.

NEXT WEDNESDAY-NEXT FRIDAY:

Wednesday shows sunshine & 52-62 north to south over the area (57 Greater Lafayette).

Thursday & Friday show 50s to 60s possible.

Rivers should reach near flood stage next week, but not big flooding is expected, though the entire are will be muddy & wet.  If you have livestock to take care of, it will be difficult to navigate through the mud.

MARCH 6-15:

It may be cooler March 6-7.

March 8-15 looks very warm!  Vegetation will be advancing & lawns greening up significantly!  Daffodils & tulips will shoot way up & crocuses will no doubt be in blossom as Silver & Red Maples & American Elms burst into blossom.

70s are possible for parts of the area.

Also a couple rounds of rain & storms are possible.

Current data suggests that the main corridor of severe weather risk will run Oklahoma & Texas, through the South.

However, parameters do suggest MARGINAL RISK type parameters making it up into our area.  We will monitor.

It is a good set-up for severe weather & heavy rainfall & lots of warmth from our region to the Lower Mississippi Valley & then all the way to the Northeast.

It still appears the worst of the flooding rainfall will set up from Arkansas to Kentucky & Tennessee.  A band of up to 13" of rain now March 14 is possible from southeast Arkansas & northern Mississippi to southern Tennessee.  Flooding will become a big weather story.

Here, latest data suggests now to March 14 1.5-4" rainfall with much of that falling in the March 8-14 period.

Note the temperature anomalies March 8-11:

Note the temperature anomalies March 12-13:

There is a tendency to shift the heavier rainfall axis north late March to early April.  It does not look like what they will get in Arkansas to Tennessee, however.

Nonetheless, as soil continue to become wetter, any new rainfall will run off more & more, resulting in a slow stair-step toward flooding risk in the area.

Late March & into early April may see river flooding with stages above flood stage with creeks & streams high.  Considerable ponding will occur on farm fields.

Guidance suggests the heaviest rainfall in the axis will occur from southern Illinois & Indiana to southern Ohio & northern Kentucky.

This is a good pattern for severe weather in the eastern Plains, Midwest & South.

Cold upper trough in the West with wet, cold, clammy weather, while unseasonable warmth floods the Plains, Midwest & South with abundant low-level moisture flowing northward from the Gulf & Caribbean as subtropical high anchors of the Southeast Coast.

Ejections of shortwaves from the Rockies & High Plains will result in frequent triggers for showers & storms.  THe blocking subtropical high will keep these areas warm for a while & rainfall may train over the same areas.

The residual cold air aloft from winter & stronger upper jet per La Nina & temperature gradient may lead to mid- to late-spring type severe weather risk over a broad zone.

The expanding & worsening drought in the Southwest & High Plains will also tend to shift the dryline a hair eastward toward Missouri & Arkansas, serving as a nearby focal point & initiation zone for severe weather.

Analog data & climatology tells me that the highest risk would be Lower Ohio Valley & into the Mississippi Valley & the South, but we could still get a share of it.

After this, there will likely be a point in the April 5-10 period that features a substantial cool-down with frost & freezing before we heat back up with rainfall & severe weather risk.

Lafayette
Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 38°
Kokomo
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Hi: 41° Lo: 24°
Feels Like: 29°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
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Hi: 46° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 34°
Lafayette
Cloudy
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Hi: 46° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 38°
Danville
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Hi: 47° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 34°
Frankfort
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Hi: 46° Lo: 26°
Feels Like: 30°
Frankfort
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Hi: 44° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 30°
Monticello
Cloudy
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Hi: 45° Lo: 27°
Feels Like: 35°
Monticello
Cloudy
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Hi: 48° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 35°
Logansport
Cloudy
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Hi: 41° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 34°
Freezing to 80s & Storms...
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