Wow how the tide has turned. As of 1:15 p.m., it is as warm as 71 in Kentucky now, 66 in southern Indiana, 70 in southern Ohio & in the viewing area, temperatures vary from 37 at Logansport to 53 at Covington.
Snow depth has gone from 14.7" at our WLFI ob site to 4". Depth varies now from 1" to 9" in the viewing area.
Cold front is moving through with wind shift to northwest, so temperatures should begin to fall a bit.
The low stratus deck runs from Kansas City to Chicago & is pivoting southeastward, so we should turn mostly cloudy with time, although we do have increase in the high & mid clouds now with skies becoming partly to mostly cloudy.
A few spits of drizzle, light showers & then snow flakes are possible this evening-tonight as low stratus deck sets up over the area.
Lows eventually should drop to 30-35 tonight.
Breezy to windy conditions this afternoon-evening from the northwest with gusts to 25-33 mph should decrease to gusts of 10-15 mph overnight.
It looks partly to mostly cloudy skies & 37-46 Thursday.
TOMORROW NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT:
Clearing with patchy freezing fog & heavy frost with black ice patches & 17-24 is expected Thursday night. Friday looks mostly sunny, followed by increasing clouds with highs 41-48.
It now appears that the showers will occur Friday night-Saturday morning & the rest of Saturday should be dry other than perhaps a few patches of drizzle. There may be some fog with south to south-southwest winds. Highs should reach 52-60 (57 Greater Lafayette).
A total of 0.10-0.30" of rain is expected.
Lows Saturday night with low clouds, some fog & patchy drizzle possible, should drop to 42-51.
Showers are expected Sunday morning-midday, especially in the southern half of the viewing area. The rest of the day just looks cloudy, followed by some clearing northwest to southeast with highs 51-60. With cold frontal passage, temperatures may begin to fall back to 47-56 in the mid- to late-afternoon with wind shift from south-southwest to northwest.
Total rainfall of 0.05-0.30" north to south is expected currently.
BIG FLOODING ISSUES are forecast for Arkansas to Kentucky to West Virginia & Tennessee with training of heavy rainfall & amounts of up to 8". Even far southern to southeastern Indiana may see up to 2.5".
Here, it is a slow stair-step towards increasing flooding risk through the rest of February & into March & early April.
Rivers should approach or potentially reach flood stage next week, but no big flooding is expected through mid-next week is still not anticipated unless the band of heavier rain shifts. However, there has been a clear trend to shift it southward toward Kentucky & Tennessee.
Sunday night looks partly cloudy to then mostly cloudy with lows in the 30s.
I confined the rainfall for early next week to Monday night-Tuesday with a couple rounds possible.
I kept Monday dry with delay in the rainfall.
With front south of the area & an east wind, I dropped highs to the 40s & then kept them in the 40s Tuesday.
I will go ahead & still mention risk of brief freezing rain Monday night-Tuesday morning for potential of temperatures to drop to 31-32 with that chilly east wind.
It appears that rainfall may run 0.40-0.75".
TUESDAY NIGHT-MARCH 6:
One last intense cold push as a hang-over from the SSWE & weakening Polar Vortex DOES look to occur now. HOWEVER, it looks to be from Ohio to Maine & then Ontario & Quebec. Record cold is possible over New England & parts of the mid-Atlantic with -20 in New England & single digits to Philadelphia, Pittsburgh to far eastern Ohio & West Virginia & 10-15 D.C.
The intense chunk of cold shouldn't reach any farther southward than Virginia.
ANOTHER SHOT could clobber the Northeast later next week with near record cold.
We will just drop to the 20s Tuesday night.
Here, we look pretty immune at this point with 60 to the 60s possible by mid to late next week with rain by March 6.
We could be near 70 by March 11 with showers & storms, followed by brief cool-down to highs in the 40s & lows in the 20s & 30s.
Overall, this is a wetter & warmer than normal pattern with risk of some severe weather. Storm system passage looks frequent. Warmth looks frequent with vegetation & spring flowers advancing rather quickly.
Wetter, stormy, warmer regime is still expected overall during this time.