February 22, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is a look at the short to even the Long Ranger.

Posted: Feb 22, 2021 7:55 PM
Updated: Feb 22, 2021 10:25 PM

Highs today ran 36-42 after lows this morning of 27-32.

It will be a windy night from the southwest to west-southwest with gusts 30-40 mph at times.  Wind will go to west tomorrow early with gusts 20-30 mph.

With that, a brief bout of some light showers & patchy drizzle are possible after midnight to around 5 a.m.

This may wetten & damp pavement in areas.  Despite temperatures 36-42 as it passes, with some clearing late, temperatures may fall to 29-33.  This could cause any moisture to freeze some on roadways. 

Watch for a few slick spots here & there Tuesday morning.

With west to west-southwest winds 15-25 mph, temperatures will surge to 41-52 over the area tomorrow.

It will be warmest from Greater Lafayette & south & southwestward at 47-52 due to more sun expected.  More clouds are expected northward with deeper snow pack, too.  I'd go much warmer if not for the still-deep snow pack.  We still have a 7" snow depth here at our station observation site & it is still up to 14" in our north & northeast!

Note the impressive warm to out west & southwest with mid 60s in parts of eastern Nebraska & 70 to low 70s in Missouri!

This is the kind of mildness I expected in early & late February with cold, icy & snowy mid-February.

Thawing will continue the rest of the week, but the rate will be such that no flooding is expected.

Only issue would be some freezing fog & heavy frost with some black ice potentially Friday morning (lows 19-26)

Some showers are possible later Saturday & showers are possible Sunday with windy, mild 46-53 Saturday & 51-60 Sunday.

53-60 is expected Monday with the most widespread rainfall & even a few t'storms possible.

We cool off with strong northwest wind Monday night-Tuesday AM to 28-33.

However, as a wave of rain moves back in Tuesday, it may begin as freezing rain or mix of freezing rain & even snow/sleet.  We will monitor.  At this point, it appears that it would eventually change to rain with highs 37-46 over the area from north to south.

1-2" of total rainfall still can't be ruled out Saturday-Tuesday.

Rain & some t'storms with warmth are expected next Friday to the next Saturday (March 5-6).

March 8-10 looks wet, too.

Could a brief cold shot bite in here for a day or two with snow or ice to as late as mid-March (given lingering effects of SSWE seek up to 60 days after)?  Could.  However, overall other players on the court are mild, wet ones that may fight against any substantial to significant cold intrusion.  The +EPO, La Nina & warm, wet MJO seem to be the player regaining their ground now.  They just have to work their magic to melt a massive real estate of deep snow cover in the Midwest to really, really get the ball rolling on warmth.

Warm, wet pattern conducive to some severe weather events appears to dominate late March to early April as any vestiges of weakening Polar Vortex wane & warm, wet drivers take over.

Flooding risk should go up here with vegetation coming out of dormancy & grass turning deep green.

Temperatures may run quite a bit above normal overall.

The West look colder than normal.  I think some of that colder than normal weather may extend as far east as the Rockies & High Plains with snowfall as big storms track through the Plains & Midwest with storms & heavy rain there & heavy snow on the backside.

Note the above normal rainfall zone in the Midwest, Lower Ohio Valley to Ontario to New England.

Note the warm, dry upper ridging in the Southeast.

March-April-May continues to trend wetter-than-normal.

The wet zone with flooding risk will tend to Midwest, Ohio Valley to Ontario.

Southeast, West & Texas look dry, warm to hot & droughty.

That will serve as the focus for drought to worsen & expand northeastward & northward.

Most of our abnormal wetness appears to overall be confined to March & April to early May.

There is a continued trend to dry it out more & more in latter May & especially into June.

Typically, the wettest time of year is May to June in the area, but the opposite may be occurring in 2021.

We will continue to monitor.

"Ring of Fire" heavy rains & storm may keep parts of the Plains & Great Lakes to Ontario wetter than normal this summer.

Dry, drought early summer should go wetter in the Southeast U.S. with very active tropics.

Here, trend continues for below normal rainfall & drought risk.  This band would line up from Kansas & New Mexico to Missouri, Illinois, then Ohio to to New York & New England.

Best thing that could happen is that we do see "Ring of Fire" pattern line up here & bring timely heavy storms to the area.  Also, the tropics pumping deep moisture northward would be helpful to bring very welcome, timely rainfall.

Either way, with drought pattern, we have some windows to tap into timely rain if we play our cards right.

Canadian long-range model temperature anomalies for summer:

Dry, warm fall shows up for 2021, but November is trending colder than normal here & eastern U.S. & much warmer in the West.

Note the lower heights in the east & higher heights progged in the West.  This indicates colder than normal East, warmer than normal West.

This, after a blazing warm November 2020 with near all-time record heat for the month.

Lafayette
Clear
32° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 32°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 25°
Rensselaer
Clear
30° wxIcon
Hi: 43° Lo: 29°
Feels Like: 30°
Lafayette
Partly Cloudy
32° wxIcon
Hi: 43° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 32°
Danville
Partly Cloudy
33° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 28°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 49° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 25°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
30° wxIcon
Hi: 45° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 25°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
28° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 28°
Monticello
Partly Cloudy
28° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 28°
Logansport
Clear
32° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 30°
Feels Like: 32°
Mild Conditions Continue Wednesday
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