February 21, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Rain, rain/snow & wind........continued thawing & warmest weather since December next weekend....watching gradual increase in flooding threat...

Posted: Feb 21, 2021 9:32 PM
Updated: Feb 21, 2021 11:59 PM

It has been really impressive to watch the flip as this loose piece of the Polar Vortex goes back to where it belongs.

In the Dallas area it was -1 a few days ago, only to see upper 70s today!  Arlington hit 79!

Alice, Texas hit 85 after low teens days ago.  Austin was 72-77 after near 0 days ago.

This all shows me that the historic Plains cold wave was largely tied to the ozone & Stratospheric Warming in the Arctic & not any of the ocean sea surface temperatures in the Pacific or Atlantic or any big teleconnectic pattern.  Only the Greenland Blocking assisted in enhancing the cold & keeping it so far south (this was tied to warm water around Greenland & ice melt).  Some cold waves have strong teleconnectic, ocean & land ties.  This was a strictly Stratosphere to Troposphere transfer in the Arctic with the Greenland issues to give it more push.

Mid 50s occurred over western Kentucky, while south-central Illinois' Salem Airport reached 48.  Even Chicago got to the upper 30s.

Parts of Nebraska were near 50 after -36 last week.  50 was found in South Dakota & North Dakota with -40 to -45 last week.

Southern Manitoba hit the upper 30s & Edmonton, Alberta rose to 48.  In Northern Alberta, Keg River hit 47 as very sudden +EPO shut the Polar Vortex segment north.

Still need to watch a random piece of cold to race southward for a bit in early March as the lingering effects of this Polar Vortex & its Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) will try to flirt (usually 30- to 60-day window of effects after the big SSWE occurs in the Arctic).

See below................

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Highs so far today are running 37-45.

Temperatures as of 9:45 p.m. are running 34-43.

Thawing continues with rain overspreading area.  Some wet snow is mixing in or it is briefly all wet snow in far north along the Kankakee River & over our far eastern fringe (brief very minor slush in some locations).

Winds gusting 40 mph to even 44 mph are blowing & drifting snow that is not wet enough yet to be held in place.  More of the rain & further melting tonight with milder temperatures will result in blowing & drifting diminishing.

Watch for slick, snow-covered areas where the snow is & has been blowing however in rural areas on mainly east-west roadways.

Peak gusts measured as of 9:45 p.m.:

44 mph   3 E Fowler

44 mph   Covington

44 mph   3 E Attica

42 mph   Remington

41 mph   2 SW Goodland (new weather station!)

41 mph   Crawfordsville Municipal Airport

40 mph   2 W Rochester

38 mph   Morocco

37 mph   4 SW Kewanna

37 mph   Purdue University Airport

35 mph   Athens

35 mph   5 W Delphi

35 mph  2 NW Crawfordsville

34 mph   Galveston

34 mph   Flora Municipal Airport

33 mph   Fickle

32 mph   Peru Municipal Airport

32 mph   New Market

32 mph   Kokomo Municipal Airport

32 mph   Frankfort Municipal Airport

31 mph   Logansport-Cass County Airport

30 mph  6 NE Monon

30 mph  Monticello-White County Airport

29 mph  Grissom Air Reserve Base

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It will remain windy all night with gusts to 40 mph at times with rain.

Rain will taper by early morning to just some patchy drizzle, then patchy flurries/light snow, drizzle & freezing drizzle as temperatures fall to 31-34. 

Any accumulation of snow fall at the end early Monday morning of 1-2" will stay north of the viewing area.  It is possible that less than 0.5" occurs along the Kankakee River & along the Fulton-Marshall County line.

Given temperatures near 32 & snow on the ground, it wouldn't be difficult for freezing of puddles & moisture on pavement & any slush left on roads from the blowing snow.  Watch for some icy areas on roadways.

South to southwest winds will turn to the west & still be strong Monday morning.

A total of near 0.30" of rainfall is expected for much of the area with a few spots seeing 0.50".

Monday is expected to be mostly cloudy otherwise with west winds 15-30 mph & highs 35-41.

A few patches of light drizzle/snow are possible tomorrow night with cloudy skies & lows near 33 with west-northwest to northwest winds 15-25 mph.

Otherwise, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies Tuesday with southwest winds 15-25 mph & highs 39-45, followed by 32-35 Tuesday night.

With partly to mostly cloudy skies & southwest winds to 30 mph Wednesday, highs of 42-48 are expected.  Some patchy drizzle & couple light rain to snow showers are possible Wednesday night.  Winds will turn to the north at 10-25 mph with lows 30-34.

Thursday will have less wind with partly cloudy skies & highs 35-42 with north to northeast wind at 5-10 mph.

Frost & some freezing fog are possible Thursday night with lows 19-26 with some clearing.

Friday looks partly cloudy with highs 37-43, followed by partly cloudy skies & 46-55 Saturday.  Winds will increase from the south to 15-25 mph.

55-60 is expected Sunday with widespread rainfall by late in the day & into the night.  Rainfall is likely Monday.  Even some t'storms cannot be ruled out.

1-2.5" rainfall is possible Sunday-Monday night.

South to then southwest to northwest winds may gust 35-45 mph.

Severe weather risk will likely occur with robust system, mainly south of our area.  We will see if we can get enough CAPE or buoyancy with the shear & strong dynamics for anything isolated severe here or at least very close to here.

Rivers & creeks will be on the rise after a week of snow melt over our area & the region in general.

With continued wetter & warming pattern, especially mid- to late-March then to early April (with increasing severe weather risk), flooding risk will continue to increase.

The only outlier of the warmer, wetter, stormy, spring-like regime is still that fact that SSWE (weakening Polar Votex events follow about 30 days ahead) can have effects up to 60 days after the North Pole warming. 

This would mean that we still have the risk of a renegade, sudden, biting, but brief cold snap of winter in early March.

If we play our cards right with a storm system with this cold shot & we may have impactful ice &/or snow.

We will monitor.

I think anything like this would be prior to March 10, then any lingering effects of the SSWE should go away & the La Nina, MJO & other players promoting warmth & wetness here should dominate.

My thoughts are that it would be a big system with rain & storms with warmth of 60s, then we see this sharp core of cold come in with a random snow or ice event with lows 7-15 before we bounce back suddenly.  That is the M.O. for these last vestiges of SSWE after a particularly big one.

So, perhaps one last good, potent, stinging shot of winter before earlier spring sets in.

We will monitor.

West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Wet, then drier with very warm to hot & humid weather.....
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