February 19, 9:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Snow & ice is approaching.

Posted: Feb 19, 2019 9:13 PM
Updated: Feb 19, 2019 11:27 PM

Now to around noon tomorrow shows snow to ice to then rain with strong east to southeast winds up to 32 mph by early morning.  Given up to 0.15" ice in the north & northeast, a few small branches may come down there with these winds.

Showers & drizzle will occur in the afternoon to early evening with potential of widespread dense fog with visibility at 0.25 mile or less as temperatures go up to 36-41 & wind decrease to 4-9 mph from the southeast.  This fog should overspread the viewing area west to east 1 p.m. onward.

This fog should be mixed out with passage of cold front in the late evening as winds go northwest & gust to 30 mph.  Temperatures falling into the 20s will follow with a few flurries & snow showers.

Good thing is that conditions will be much worse west, northwest & east, northeast & southeast of our area.  A winter storm is likely in areas on either side of us, we will be in a hole of less!

Snow & ice totals look good before going to rain & drizzle.

Thursday looks to have decreasing clouds with 35-40, followed by 16-21 Thursday night, then increasing clouds & 37-42 Friday.

Lows Friday night will drop to 30-35, then rise to 32-36.  Some brief freezing rain may occur in the northeast as it arrives late Friday night.

Periodic rainfall will be with us Saturday, Saturday night to Sunday morning with gusty east, then southeast winds to 30 mph.

Heaviest should fall Saturday night to Sunday morning with an embedded QLCS narrow squall line reaching as far north as the viewing area.

As temperatures warm from the 40s to 50 late Saturday through 50s to 57-63 by Sunday morning, a couple/few isolated severe storms may be embedded in that line.  Best potential is over eastern Warren, Fountain, Montgomery, Tippecanoe, Carroll, Clinton & Howard counties.  A brief, weak EF0 tornado &/or brief severe gust +58 mph is possible with a small bow, S-shaped LEWP meso vorticity in the line.

I think part of the area will end up in MARGINAL RISK of severe from the Storm Prediction Center.  The SLIGHT RISK is not that far away to our south.

Southerly winds may gust to 35 mph in a highly-sheared & dynamic, but low CAPE environment.

Dry slot should arrive Sunday morning with some sun once the rain & t'storms pass.  Temperatures will likely peak at 57-64.  Cold front should come through mid to late morning as a narrow, broken line of gusty showers & t'showers.

Low, gray, dreary stratus overcast, gust west to northwest winds gusting 35-45 mph, tanking temperatures & some light rain/snow to snow showers & flurries should then pivot in.

Temperatures may be 32-35 by early evening.

1-2.25" of rainfall is likely from this storm system.

It looks like some snow Monday-Monday night will change briefly to rain Tuesday as temperatures surge from 28-33 to 40-46, then fall. 

By Tuesday evening, temperatures will be back to 30-33, resulting in a change over from rain to snow before ending.

It looks like a stretch of below to well below normal temperatures will follow into March with opportunities for snow & icing episodes.

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