February 19, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update On Snow, Ice & Rain Ahead & Flash Spring

More active weather is ahead.

Posted: Feb. 19, 2019 12:10 PM
Updated: Feb. 19, 2019 2:22 PM

Much of the viewing area is under a Winter Weather Advisory for the snow & ice tonight to Wednesday morning.

Snow will overspread the viewing area south to north after 10 p.m. & cover the entire viewing area by 4 a.m.

It will then change to freezing rain with some sleet possible. This should occur south to north 3 a.m. to 7 a.m.

Freezing rain will eventually change to rain for the entire viewing area by early afternoon.  This should occur south to north over the viewing area in the 6 a.m. to 1 p.m. time frame.

Some showers, drizzle & areas of dense fog will occur tomorrow afternoon & evening as the gusty winds of the morning (east to southeast to 30 mph) diminish.

The wind will pick back up in the evening (northwest to 33 mph) & into the night as any showers end as some flurries/snow showers with little/no accumulation.

Periods of rain, heaviest Saturday night to early Sunday (with a few t'storms) will accompny strong winds.  Gusts of 30-40 mph are possible at times with this system Friday night-Sunday.  Highest gusts should be Sunday with some reaching 45 mph.

1-2" of rainfall is likely.

40s Saturday evening will rise to 50s, then reach 57-63 early Sunday, then fall quickly to the 30s with the howling winds.  Some flurries/snow showers are possible Sunday evening-night.

The epicenter of the severe weather risk will be east Texas to Arkansas, Mississippi, Louisiana & western Tennessee Saturday to Saturday evening.

HOWEVER, Saturday night, a QLCS squall line with embedded meso-vortices & LEWPs with wind & tornado risk will race northeastward in the warmth ahead of the strong cold front.

It is likely that some SLIGHT RISK severe potential will occur as far north as southeastern Illinois & southwestern Indiana.

It would not surprise me if MARGINAL RISK of severe weather gets into eastern Warren, Fountain, Montgomery, Tippecanoe, Carroll, Clinton &  Howard counties for late Saturday night-early Sunday.  This would occur with northern end of QLCS squall line in a highly-sheared environment with temperatures around 60-63 with dew points 58-61.  It could even be expanded northward given highly-sheared environment.

We will continue to monitor.

There is your flash spring!

The winter blahs return for the first 12 days of March with below to well below temperatures & potential of some snow & ice episodes.

It has the potential to be the coldest first 12 days of March since at least 2014, perhaps even farther back (though 2014 ranks in the top 5).

Waves of unusual cold tend to keep coming well into March with snow & ice potential.  Some record cold is on the table.

Undoubtedly a couple burps of warmer weather will occur March 1-19 of brief flash spring.  However, it will not be until around March 20 that a longer, more sustained change occurs.

However, note the big change around March 20!  It turns much, much warmer!

With this big pattern change, it sure looks like a couple severe weather outbreaks could occur suddenly way to the north from Texas to Louisiana to Iowa & Minnesota.  It could get as far east as Illinois, but not so much here.........at least the way it looks right now.

These sudden big, big changes are & will behave more like a La Nina than an El Nino Modoki.  It appears that the MJO influence is masking the El Nino Modoki to look more like a La Nina!  MJO is the dominant player on the court once again & it, combined with the AO & NAO will be big players in March.

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Rain returns tomorrow.
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