February 18, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update: Accumulating Snow, Ice, Rain (with Flooding), Dense Fog, Flash Spring with T'Storms

After one icy night & morning, here is the latest outlook into March.

Posted: Feb 18, 2019 11:47 AM
Updated: Feb 18, 2019 1:09 PM

SNOW SHOWERS & FLURRIES........QUICK 0.5" OF ACCUMULATION IN PLACES..........

There is a nice hole of sunshine from Lafayette to Logansport right now.  More clouds are coming in from the north to fill in that gap however.

Note the enhancement of the clouds (bumpy, brighter nature) in the northwest from Benton to Newton & Jasper counties & over the south from Fountain to Montgomery & Clinton counties.

Snow is falling in the areas of cloud enhancement.

It is storm system snow showers in the south & southwest, but lake effect snow showers in the northwest of the viewing area with temperatures in the 20s area-wide.

Highs today should reach 27-32 with northwest winds 10-15 mph.

Scattered snow showers are likely this afternoon.  They will tend to be hit or miss, however.

A few locations may see a brief 0.5" accumulate in heavier showers with clouds & some sun at times today.

Skies look partly cloudy to cloudy tonight.  Snow showers & flurries will taper to just some spotty flurries overnight.  There may still be some spotty flurries around even tomorrow morning before they exit by 11 a.m.  Lows of 15-21 are likely with a north-northwest wind 5-10 mph becoming north, then north-northeast after midnight.

CLOUDING UP AGAIN..........PERIODICALLY BLUSTERY WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN & SOME SLEET TO RAIN TO DRIZZLE & DENSE FOG TO DRIZZLE TO SOME FLURRIES & SNOW SHOWERS...........

The low clouds may gradually break & erode where they are left over tomorrow, but high & mid clouds will quickly begin to obscure & dim the sun with time.  This is our next impactful system approaching.  Winds will turn to the east & pick up to 10-20 mph with time tomorrow.  Highs will run 28-33.

Here is that next impactful system coming in & passing through Tuesday night-Wednesday night.  Of course blue is snow, pink is freezing rain & rust color is sleet with the green as rain.

So, precipitation begin as snow at first (possibly mixed with some sleet/freezing rain at times in the south).  So, largely snow should overspread the viewing area in the 10 p.m. to 4 a.m. time frame Tuesday night.  I should be in far southern Montgomery County around & shortly after 10 p.m., then reach Fulton County by 3 a.m.

I looks to reach the Pine Village, Lafayette, Frankfort corridor by around 1 a.m.

Kentland to Monticello, Delphi to Bunker Hill by 2 a.m.

Wheatfield to Winamac to southern Fulton County should see the edge of the snow reach there by 3 a.m.

I should completely cover Fulton County by 4 a.m.

Change over from snow to freezing rain (& potentially some sleet) should occur in the 6 a.m. to 12 p.m. time farm south to north over the area.

Change over to ice looks to reach the Pine Village, Lafayette, Frankfort corridor by around 7 a.m.

Kentland to Monticello, Delphi to Bunker Hill by 8 a.m.

Wheatfield to Winamac to southern Fulton County should see the edge of the snow reach there by 10 a.m.

I should completely cover Fulton County by 12 p.m.

However, the duration of ice looks much less than it did in previous data.  Latest analysis shows only a 1 to 1.5 hour period of freezing rain, & perhaps a bit of sleet, before changing to just cold rain.  Still, some minor ice accumulation is likely.

The rain line should expand rapidly northward through the viewing area in the 7:30 a.m. to 2 p.m. time frame.

The entirely viewing area looks to be in just cold rain by 2 p.m.

Total snowfall accumulation should run 1-2" north of Indiana 18 & 1" or less south of Indiana 18.

Total ice accumulation should run less than 0.10" area wide, all before the plain cold rain.

Winds will be gusty from the east, then east-southeast at 20-33 mph Wednesday 1 a.m. to 11 a.m.  However, a period of southeast winds at only 3-6 mph still looks possible in the 12 p.m. to 5 p.m. time frame.  With temperatures warming to 35-41 during that time with rain & drizzle, areas of dense fog may develop.  Main area of rain will taper to drizzle after 4 p.m.

Dense fog should be mixed out as the winds pick up from the southwest at 15-25 mph after 5 p.m.  The wind should go to the west-southwest, then west at 15-30 mph after 10 p.m.  However, drizzle may hang on through the evening, resulting in visibility reduction, but it won't be like it was with 0.50 mile or less visibility with the fog.

Actual cold front may not pass until after midnight.  Winds will shift to northwest behind it & temperatures should fall into the 20s with a period of some flurries & snow showers.

Little/no snow accumulation is expected at this time Wednesday night-Thursday morning.

Then we watch the next system approach by later Friday after lots of clouds & 30s Thursday & 20s Thursday night with light winds.

BRIEF FLASH SPRING LATE WEEKEND WITH RAIN (FLOODING RISK & EVEN A FEW T'STORMS!)& FOG.............MAJOR WINTER STORM TO BLIZZARD NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...........

Waves of rainfall are likely Friday night to Sunday night with increasing potential of some flash & then river flooding.  Local minor ice jamming will be an issue, though not like it was in January to early February.

Heaviest rainfall should pass late Saturday night to Sunday morning with a few t'storms possible.  An isolated t'storm embedded in the rainfall is possible Saturday late afternoon to early evening.

Yep, that some elevated CAPE for some thunder & lightning, especially late Saturday night-Sunday morning.

Friday looks cool with 30s & 40s, but a lack of wind.  Friday night will be nasty with chilly east winds at 10-20 mph & rain moving in.  Looks like a situation where we will be CLOSE to freezing rain in our northern & northeastern areas with temperatures there 33-34.  It will run 34-36 elsewhere.  We will monitor for potential of any freezing rain in the northern counties for Friday night-Saturday morning.

Even into Saturday morning it will be raw with rain & 30s.

We should reach 36-41 by 1 p.m. over the area with winds turning to the east-southeast.

Warm front should move through Saturday evening with a 1-3 hour period of areas of dense fog as winds turn to the south & relax to 5-8 mph.  An isolated t'storm with the rainfall may accompany passage of the warm front northward.  Temperatures should suddenly rise to 48-55 as FLASH SPRING BEGINS!

It will feel like spring overnight into Sunday morning with the heaviest rainfall with a few t'storms in that time.  Flooding will be an issue with lots of ponding in fields, lawns & on streets.  Creeks & streams will be high or even spill over their banks. 

By Sunday morning, south-southwest winds of 20-35 mph are likely with temperatures 56-62!

The rain & t'storms should shut off by mid-morning & sun should appear as cold front passes as some towering cumulus with a broken rope-like line of gusty showers & t'showers.  Highs should reach 56-63 by 10 a.m., then fall to 48-52 quickly with west-southwest to west winds at 25-40 mph.

Skies should turn mostly cloudy in the afternoon as the wind turns more & more to the west, then northwest at 20-35 mph with temperatures 37-45 by early evening.

A few flurries & snow showers are possible Sunday night-Monday morning with 20s & gusty northwest winds to 33 mph as winter return & our flash spring becomes a memory.

Severe weather is possible off & on from east Texas to as far north as far southern Indiana to Georgia Friday night-Sunday night.  The main severe weather episode is shaping up from Saturday PM to Sunday AM from Mississippi & Tennessee to Kentucky & far southern Indiana.  Epicenter of the worst is Louisiana & Mississippi to southeastern Arkansas & southwestern Tennessee.

A total of 1-2.25" of rainfall is likely area-wide (heaviest southeast) Friday night-Sunday.  Note how areas south of us get hit with another round of flooding rainfall atop saturated soils.  Another significant river flooding event is likely over those areas yet again.

We will have another event of all creeks, streams & rivers in flood mode, but I do not foresee the stages exceeding low-end Moderate levels right now.

After our flash spring, it is back to cold domination with below to well below normal temperatures with snow & ice risk through a good chunk of March.  I still think we will suddenly break out of it for sustained, nice warmth on & after March 20.

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