Other than a few lake effect snow flurries in the eastern counties Thursday, it looks dry until Sunday.
Some models have mostly rain Sunday-Monday in two main waves, others have rain to accumulating wet snowfall.
Lack of agreement is based on positions of surface high east of our area, exact track of one or two surface lows & how much residual colder, dry air may exist east & south of our area by Sunday.
U.S. GFS model is all rain.
Canadian model is rain to accumulating wet snowfall.
European model is rain to accumulating wet snowfall
German ICON model is all rain.
All have a rather moisture-laden system with around 1" of liquid.
Consensus is good on only clouds & some drizzle Tuesday with southerly winds, fog & highs near 51.
Wednesday looks wet with mild 50s falling late in the day as strong southwest winds turn to the west, then northwest.
Severe weather event to outbreak may occur in the southern part of the U.S. & intercept moisture to cut rainfall totals.
Much colder weather will follow with lows near 0 to single digits follows. It looks like a bitter start to March with potential of snowfall.
Colder than normal weather will absolutely dominate late February to early March. Analog data strongly supports this:
Several opportunities for snow will exist very late February & early to mid-March.
Want spring? Last 11 days of March look below normal.
This will likely bring our first 70. Models & climatology support this notion of our first 70 after March 20.
For what it is worth, first 75 temperature occurs April 5-12 in the viewing area.
Normal first 80 is in the April 19-25 time frame.
First 85 typically occurs in the May 10-17 period.
First 90 is in the June 2-11 period.
