February 18, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update

Much colder weather is ahead, followed by rain & snow.

Posted: Feb 18, 2020 12:52 PM
Updated: Feb 18, 2020 2:25 PM

TODAY:

Some clearing will develop today with temperatures in the 30s & brisk northwest winds.

TONIGHT:

As we clear out tonight (with rather frosty conditions developing), lows should drop to 14-21 with a northwest wind at 7-13 mph.  This will bring wind chills down to 0-10.

TOMORROW:

A few clouds are possible Wednesday with sunshine & 25-32 for highs over the viewing area. With northerly winds at 10-20 mph, wind chills will run around 14-22.

TOMORROW NIGHT:

Clouds will increase & thicken Wednesday night with lows 15-25.  North winds at 10-15 mph will drop wind chills to 1-16.

THURSDAY: 

It will turn mostly sunny, but it will be a cold day with highs only 22-28.  North winds at 10-15 mph will make it feel more like 9-17.

THURSDAY NIGHT:

It looks clear, very frosty & COLD with lows 8-14.  However, the winds look light to calm.  If we had a snow pack, it would be brutally cold in such a situation with lows way below 0.

FRIDAY:

Lots of sunshine will occur Friday as well with sunny to mostly sunny skies.  It will turn warmer with highs 30-36 with southwest winds 10-20 mph.  Wind chills drop to 9-13 in the morning, then run in the mid to upper 20s in the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT:

Clouds should increase late.  With southwest winds 8-12 mph, lows will drop to 22-28.  Wind chills will run in the teens to lower 20s.

Winter storm will bypass our area to the southwest, south & southeast over the next several day as we are protected by a sprawling cold Canadian surface high.

SATURDAY:

It looks partly cloudy with highs 43-48 with southwest winds 20-30 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: 

With partly cloudy skies, lows should only drop to 34-37 with southwest winds 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY:

We should turn cloudy in the morning with wind shift to the south, then southeast at 10-15 mph.  Eventually we will go to the east.

All data is unclear on dominant precipitation type Sunday-Monday overall.  We need to monitor it closely, as it will track south of our area & have total liquid precipitation values of a solid 1".

However, the agreement is good that we will warm up substantially Tuesday with drizzle & overcast skies (50s) & stay mild into Wednesday with rain developing.  Much colder air will follow with highs in the 20s & lows in the single digits.

So.....

Sunday & Monday...........

Dominant precipitation type will be determine by track of two areas of surface low pressure along a stationary front south of our area.

U.S. GFS model has mostly rain Sunday-Monday with temperatures 35-40.

Canadian model has rain changing to snow with 1-3" of wet, gloppy accumulation Monday as temperatures fall from 35-38 Sunday to 31-34 Monday.

Germany's ICON model is completely different with one single, main low & all rain with highs in the 40s.  It also confines the rainfall to only Monday, not Sunday & Monday.

UKMET model has largely rain & French model is mostly rain, but JMA or the Japanese model is more like the Canadian here with snow.

So, just count rain & possibly some snow Sunday-Monday period with highs 30s & 40s.  Exact track(s) of system(s) will determine wind direction (south, southwest, southeast, east or northeast) & thus exact temperatures.  Also surface high off of the East Coast will help to determine storm(s) track & precipitation types.

Also, again, know it will warm up nicely Tuesday, so even if there is some wet snow it will melt very quickly.

Then.............the cold.........

The effects of the sea surface temperatures south of India & around Australia have & continue to loosen their grip a bit more, causing the MJO to have less effect on our weather.  As a result, we are seeing what was more expected from this winter occur with colder plunges.

Note the sprawling Arctic high & bitter cold late next week to the following weekend (weekend of February 29-March 1):

The extent of cold is impressive late next week with a freeze to the Gulf Coast & potentially a freeze as far south as west-central Florida.

This could cause damage to peaches & blueberries budding & blooming in parts of the South & damage corn in the V2 stage in South Texas.

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Snow showers......
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