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February 17, 1:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Rain, then colder again...

Posted: Feb 17, 2020 1:17 PM
Updated: Feb 17, 2020 3:42 PM

There is plenty of winter cold & snow ahead.  True spring weather should not get here for any duration until after March 20.

This is based on what is projected right now on February 17 at 1:30 p.m.

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Rainfall is moving in.  In the far north & northeast it may come down as some sleet at the onset. 

Temperatures are 36-42 over the area currently.

Rain is likely tonight before largely tapering by 3 a.m.

After that, drizzle & ares dense fog with visibility at 0.25 mile or less is possible.

After the rain, temperatures will continue to rise over a cold, cold, wet ground, reaching the 40s to 50s with a light south wind.  This will lead to fog issues.

This risk of dense fog will occur in the 3 a.m. to 7 a.m. time frame.  It will disperse with arrive of the cold front, which may have a few/couple showers with it.

After 7 a.m., temperatures should fall tomorrow with brisk northwest winds & a few flurries & mostly cloudy to cloudy skies.

Temperatures should fall quickly through the 30s & eventually reach the teens tomorrow night with a clearing sky.

Model trends are to shift the heaviest rainfall to southwest & south of our area.  We will monitor.  Some areas may still see 1" in a pretty short period of time.

Note the widespread record cold northwest of our area by midnight Tuesday night & our temperatures tanking to the 20s at that time.

It has been a brutal February in the Plains & northern Great Lakes.  This should continue.

Wednesday looks cold with sunshine & 20s to 30 for highs.

Note the clipper in the Dakotas merging with winter storm exiting the eastern Rockies.

Arctic high will act as a shielf & make storm stay southwest, south & southeast of our area.

It will be a dome of cold, dry weather Wednesday & then right to early next weekend.

Underneath the Arctic high there is some bitterly cold weather for late February that will impact us.

Lows may reach near 0 to the single digits.

If we had snow pack, we'd likely reach -20.

It looks like two systems of rain in the February 24-27 period.

However, some data suggests a system of snow to start February 23 & then a system of snow around February 28-29.

U.S. CFS, Canadian GDPS & German ICON model all show a system of accumulating snowfall February 23.

We shall see.  There may be enough cold for snow on the 23rd, but it does appear that rain will follow with temperatures reaching as high as the 50s.

Regardless, it looks like a pretty active period for storm systems February 23-29.

There continues to be a tendency for a lot of cold weather in March with below normal temperatures dominating.

For example, these are the temperature anomalies for projected highs on March 2.

This is anomalous cold around mid-March is shown below.

This cold is actually forecast to come after a winter storm tracks from Texas to eastern Ohio, bringing us accumulating snowfall.

So, these numbers occur over projected snowpack & would result in multiple days of record low temperatures.

This could be the last really big winter hurrah & it may end on a substantial to significant note.

Snow depth anomalies are shown in our area in mid-March.  Above normal snow depths are shown over our area & in a band from British Columbia to Montana to Nebraska, Iowa to Vermont, New Hampshire & Maine.

Spring shows up after March 20 with above normal temperatures projected overall March 23-30.

The lingering remnants of the bitter from mid-March will erode in the Northeast & Southeast to South Texas.

Our first 70 should occur after March 20 & we will be more than ready after all of the raw weather for a good chunk of March!

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
47° wxIcon
Hi: 52° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 40°
Kokomo
Few Clouds
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 36°
Rensselaer
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 31°
Feels Like: 34°
Fowler
Clear
43° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 34°
Williamsport
Clear
45° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 36°
Crawfordsville
Clear
44° wxIcon
Hi: 51° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 36°
Frankfort
Clear
47° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 40°
Delphi
Clear
44° wxIcon
Hi: 50° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 36°
Monticello
Clear
44° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 36°
Logansport
Clear
45° wxIcon
Hi: 48° Lo: 32°
Feels Like: 37°
A much cooler day with strong winds and some late-day showers.
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