February 17, 12 PM Update: Dry Slotting Underway.....What Expected Afternoon to Monday Late Morning

Dry slotting now with some snow.....& freezing rain.

Posted: Feb. 17, 2019 11:04 AM
Updated: Feb. 17, 2019 11:54 AM

There is a lot of dry slotting underway, chewing up snow.

There is basically heavier snowfall in a semi circle all around us to our northwest, north, northeast & east & some freezing rain southeast.

You can see the higher cloud tops with precipitation (yellow), especially all around us & note that dry air coming in, especially in Illinois where peeks of sun are appearing.

The advisories & warnings are all around us.  We are in a hole of less.

In our area, yes, there is snow, but it is struggling in that mid level drier air.

So, far, I have had reports of trace to 0.6" of snow over the viewing area.  I measured 0.3" at Purdue & 0.1" here at the official observing site for our WLFI records. 

Jim in Kentland reports 0.2".  0.2" has been reported northeast of Ladoga, northwest of Michigantown, at Fowler & Earl Park.

0.4" has been reported from Frankfort, 0.5" Crawfordsville & 0.6" southeast of Crawfordsville.

Trace amounts of freezing rain have been reported in the south.

Models are less aggressive with the dry air than what is actually occurring.  This is the HRRR run from early this morning.  It brought some pretty heavy snow banding to the area, but the dry air has tended to chew that up.

Projection for midday to Monday morning:

Projection for total snowfall now-Monday late morning (what has already occurred plus what is coming) via the HRRR model is below.

Steady snow tries to pivot back in from the northwest following drier slotting.

Note how it tries to keep that 3-5" band coming over the northern/northwestern areas with little/nothing south.  It has an additional 0.2" in Greater Lafayette, 0.5" northern Tippecanoe County & perhaps trace southern Tippecanoe, nothing more Montgomery, but another 1" at Logansport.

All that said............

I feel in the middle of a forecast quandary (due to radar & models not matching up well at all).  As radar looks like any substantial snowfall will just stay west, northwest, north, northeast & east of our area. 

You look at where we are right now & a quick radar glance tells you that anymore than an additional 0.7" is a long shot, but I also see some forecast dynamics at play later today-tonight to Monday.  So, it is either my gut or strictly the mathmatical data.  One of them is off.

So, I am combining both gut & math with a lean toward math. 

I will keep some freezing drizzle/patchy light snow in the forecast for a chunk of the area this afternoon, then pivot in steady snow for late today-tonight-tomorrow to late morning.

I am going with 1" or less along & southeast of a Peru to Logansport to Delphi to Brookston to Pine Village to Pence line & southeastward.  Northwest of that line 1-3" is possible total by Monday morning.  A narrow corridor of +3" is possible in the northwest & northern areas of the viewing area.

The wind will kick up again tonight with north to northwest gusts 20-25 mph, resulting in some minor blowing/drifting, even with just 0.5" snow.

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Rain returns tomorrow.
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