Note the dry slot impinging on the snow & ice (south) after wave of it tomorrow morning-midday.
Dry slot will result in more in the way of snow northwest & northeast of our area.
This goes now to 1 p.m. tomorrow:
Projected snowfall accumuations by 1 p.m. tomorrow (1-2.5" northwest half, around 1" or less southeast half):
Projected ice accumulations by 1 p.m. tomorrow (Up to 0.05" south):
In dry slot, precipitation will decrease or event stop altogether for a while in some areas, especially the southern/southeastern half. Some dim, faint sun may peek through in the dry slot, mainly in the southern/southeastern half. Melting will occur with temperatures rising to 29-33.
After brisk east winds in the morning gusting 20-30 mph, winds will diminish.
Snow should then pivot back in by late afternoon & last into Sunday night. It should taper to snow showers & flurries by Monday. I am thinking that at least some spotty flurries & a few snow showers may linger into the afternoon with lot of clouds & only a few peeks of sun.
As temperatures drop back well into the 20s Sunday evening-night, roads will become slippery & hazardous again. Winds will increase from the north to northwest with gusts at 20-25 mph.
So, some very minor blowing/drifting is possible Sunday morning & then again Sunday night-early Monday morning.
Additional accumulation of 0.5-1.5" is likely by Monday, resulting in final totals of 1-3" over much of the viewing area & potential of a pocket of 3-5" in the northwest.
Snow to ice, ending as rain with strong winds is likely mid week, followed by potential of some snow to ice to rain to snow late week to next weekend with strong gusty winds.
Flash spring? Hard to pinpoint exact timing. There is a strong signal still for it. It may only last 30 to 36 hours, but 50s to 60s are possible. Thinking it would be somewhere in the February 26-March 1 time frame.
After that, LOOK OUT! FULL THROTTLE winter will roar in with snow, ice risk & well below normal temperatures that may reach record low levels in early March. Lows below zero are possible.
I doubt we will fully shake the cold (though a couple brief surges of mildness) until March 20. Winter will not be in any hurry to exit.
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- February 14, 7 PM Weather Forecast Update