February 16, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Snow & ice are ahead.

Posted: Feb 16, 2019 12:12 PM
Updated: Feb 16, 2019 12:44 PM

Temperatures are in the 20s with a stratus/stratocumulus deck over the area.  There are breaks in the far southern part of the area.  Note the snow pack west, southwest & northwest of the viewing area.

East wind is pushing the low cloud deck westward.

My thinking has been since lastnight that this cloud deck would gradually break up & erode, resulting in increasing sunshine through the afternoon.

Latest data is on-board with this notion.

HOWEVER, this inversion is awfully strong, so it may take quite a while to get good breaks in the cloud deck & decent erosion in it.  Some of you will stay mostly cloudy to cloudy all day, but some of you will get into decent sunshine.  The love won't be spread around everywhere though. 

A few flurries would not even surprise me from the deck in the northwest where extra lake moisture may help some flurries to occur.

Wave of snow will pass 5 a.m. to 1 p.m. Sunday.  It will likely change to freezing rain & sleet in the southern part of the viewing area.  Up to 0.05" of freezing rain is possible in southern Fountain & Montgomery counties with less than 0.05" to as far north as southern Warren, southern Tippecanoe & southern Clinton counties.  A trace of sleet is possible.

Note how the precipitation tends to shut off early afternoon as dry slot comes in, however.

There may even be a few dim peeks of sun here & there in the dry slot with temperatures rising to 29-33.  This will result in improving roads & melting.

By 1 p.m., 0.3" snow & ice in the south to 0.5-1.1" of snow farther northward is likely to have accumulated.

Dry slot should move on, then snow pivot back in behind it late afternoon-evening to Sunday night & early Monday morning.  Road conditions will go downhill in the evening & into Sunday night-Monday early morning.

Much of the snow will be out of here by mid-morning Monday, but a few flurries & snow showers may linger in the area until midday.

An additional 0.5-1.8" of snow is likely with the second round of snow for much of the area.  I do think that a bit more than this could fall in northern Newton & Jasper counties.

Note how the heaviest snowfall from this storm is northwest, west, north & northeast of the area due to the dry slot.

Total accumulation for the area will run around 1 to 3".  A small area of 3-5" is possible in far northern Newton & Jasper counties.

Wind will be rather brisk from the east later tonight through Sunday morning with gusts of 20-30 mph possible.  However, winds should diminish in the afternoon & become rather light.

Winds will increase Sunday evening-night to Monday morning, but not be too bad with gusts 20-25 mph.

This could still result in some local blowing/drifting of low significance however.

Accumulating snow & ice is likely Tuesday night-Wednesday.  It may briefly change to rain before ending if temperatures can indeed reach 33-36 as projected.

Icing is likely area-wide with up to 0.10" of accumulation of glaze & a trace of sleet.

1" or less of snow is expected Rochester to Monticello to Covington & southeastward before precipitation changes to ice. 1-2" is possible northwest of that line, it appears right now.

The heavy 5-9" snows should fall from southeastern Wisconsin to northwestern Illinois & Iowa.

This should all end as some rain Wednesday.

East-southeast to southeast winds will be strong Tuesday night with gusts to 32 mph.

Winds should diminish Wednesday.  A period of dense fog is possible Wednesday afternoon as winds go calm & rain tapers to cold drizzle.

Fog should be mixed out Wednesday evening as cold front passes & winds pick up from the northwest up to 25 mph.

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